US Employment Steady in June; Fed Rate Cuts Expected by End of Year

US employment likely held up at a solid-but-moderating pace of 190,000 in June, with the unemployment rate at 4%, according to consensus from Bloomberg Economics. Any signs of weakness might nudge the Federal Reserve into cutting rates sooner. Analysts expect the Fed to make its first rate cut at the end of the year. Bloomberg Economics forecasts two rate cuts in September and December, totaling 50 basis points this year, followed by 100 basis points of cuts in 2025. UBS also suggests that data should allow the Fed to start cutting rates later this year. BCA Research chief US equity strategist Irene Tunkel believes the Fed will likely make its first cut at the end of the year.