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Bolivia News

    Prediction markets for Bolivia

    OptionProbability

    He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

    He leaves Argentina during his first term

    He travels to Chile during his first term

    He travels to Brazil during his first term

    He is photographed with Elon Musk

    A photo of him with Trump is released

    A photo of Milei with Biden is released

    His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position

    Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?

    Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?

    Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]

    Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]

    Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better

    His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered

    Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39

    Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]

    According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]

    Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%

    There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.

    Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?

    The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]

    He wins reelection to a 2nd term

    LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?

    The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]

    Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place

    LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?

    He travels to Bolivia

    A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him

    Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term

    Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)

    He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal

    He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX

    Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup

    Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]

    He goes incommunicado for at least a week

    Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)

    Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish

    He marries during his first term

    He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term

    US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina

    He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week

    There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired

    He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it

    Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term

    He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years

    Will he ever be TIME person of the year?

    He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]

    Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup

    He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]

    The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office

    Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees

    The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use

    He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office

    Argentina will win the 2026 world cup

    He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election

    He travels to Russia during his first term

    He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash

    Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?

    He has a child during his first term

    He is excommunicated by the catholic church

    Argentina will declare war

    He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]

    He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]

    He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash

    He passes away during his first term before completion

    There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side

    Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week

    He officially converts to Judaism

    Will Argentina join BRICS?

    Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    91

    88

    86

    84

    84

    83

    72

    71

    63

    56

    55

    51

    50

    48

    48

    45

    45

    41

    40

    38

    36

    34

    30

    30

    29

    28

    27

    26

    26

    26

    25

    23

    23

    21

    20

    19

    17

    17

    13

    11

    11

    8

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    OptionProbability

    Argentina

    Brazil

    France

    England

    Spain

    Portugal

    Germany

    Belgium

    Uruguay

    Netherlands

    Colombia

    Switzerland

    United States of America

    Morocco

    Croatia

    Mexico

    Austria

    Turkey

    Canada

    Japan

    Egypt

    Ivory Coast

    Senegal

    Ecuador

    South Korea

    Norway

    Sweden

    Algeria

    Czech Republic

    Scotland

    Paraguay

    Australia

    Qatar

    Saudi Arabia

    Uzbekistan

    Bosnia and Herzegovina

    South Africa

    DR Congo

    Iran

    Ghana

    Tunisia

    New Zealand

    Panama

    Jordan

    Iraq

    Haiti

    Cape Verde

    Curacao

    Jamaica

    New Caledonia

    Bolivia

    Suriname

    Ukraine

    Poland

    Albania

    Slovakia

    Kosovo

    Romania

    Italy

    Wales

    Northern Island

    Denmark

    Republic of Ireland

    North Macedonia

    96

    96

    95

    94

    94

    93

    93

    92

    90

    90

    88

    88

    85

    83

    83

    80

    80

    78

    73

    73

    73

    73

    73

    72

    70

    70

    66

    65

    64

    58

    54

    53

    50

    49

    43

    43

    37

    37

    36

    35

    34

    33

    28

    24

    24

    20

    19

    16

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Bolivia

    Comoros

    Venezuela

    Indonesia

    Bangladesh

    Lebanon

    Brunei

    Djibouti

    Maldives

    Saudi Arabia

    Syria

    Oman

    Cuba

    Pakistan

    Algeria

    Iran

    Libya

    Malaysia

    Mauritania

    Yemen

    Afghanistan

    Iraq

    Kuwait

    Mali

    Niger

    North Korea

    Qatar

    Somalia

    Tunisia

    100

    11

    11

    10

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    6

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    Prospera wins fight against Honduras

    Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM
    55.66%chance
    394057

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1067

    932

    OptionProbability

    Bolivia

    Bahrain

    Indonesia

    Saudi Arabia

    Belize

    Syria

    Comoros

    Lebanon

    Oman

    Bangladesh

    South Africa

    Venezuela

    Iran

    Qatar

    Mauritania

    Somalia

    Maldives

    Tunisia

    Djibouti

    Mali

    Niger

    Malaysia

    Algeria

    Libya

    Pakistan

    Yemen

    Kuwait

    Brunei

    Cuba

    Colombia

    Afghanistan

    Iraq

    North Korea

    100

    99

    86

    86

    76

    75

    73

    70

    69

    67

    66

    65

    63

    63

    61

    61

    60

    58

    55

    50

    50

    49

    48

    48

    47

    44

    39

    35

    34

    34

    32

    29

    20

    OptionProbability

    Belize

    Rwanda

    Bosnia and Herzegovina (reopen)

    North Macedonia (reopen)

    Kenya

    Algeria

    Jamaica (reopen)

    Bolivia (reopen)

    Madagascar

    Cameroon

    Cambodia

    Belarus (reopen)

    Iceland (reopen)

    Iraq (besides US military base)

    Russia (reopen)

    Greenland

    Iran (reopen)

    Bangladesh

    Bhutan

    Vatican City

    Afghanistan

    50

    41

    40

    40

    36

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    33

    27

    27

    25

    23

    22

    17

    17

    7

    2

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1338

    923

    OptionProbability

    Ecuador

    Brazil

    Argentina

    Bolivia

    27

    27

    27

    20

    OptionProbability

    Bolivia

    Columbia

    Other

    yemen

    Netherlands

    Brazil

    Portugal

    Canada

    30

    25

    10

    9

    8

    8

    7

    4

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Brazil

    Bolivia

    Canada

    Netherlands

    Portugal

    USA

    China (mainland)

    India

    36

    20

    10

    9

    6

    6

    4

    4

    4

    will france win the world cup

    Mar 29, 9:01 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM
    16.25%chance
    647

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    101

    92

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    121

    83

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