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Rome News

    Prediction markets for Rome

    Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

    Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM
    20049319

    OptionProbability

    YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

    NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

    NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

    NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

    79

    12

    6

    3

    What are some of the best educational games?

    Sep 8, 3:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
    8931447

    OptionProbability

    Other

    PianoVision

    Quantum Odyssey

    The Farmer Was Replaced

    Treasure Cove

    Math blasters

    Brain Age

    Dance Dance Revolution

    Turing Complete

    Rocksmith

    NandGame

    Scale of the universe

    SHENZHEN I/O

    Zoombinis

    https://www.geogridgame.com/

    Mahjong

    runescape

    Poly Bridge

    Victoria II

    Universal Paperclips [Invalid, already played]

    Antbuster [Invalid, already played]

    Spore [Invalid, already played]

    Geoguessr [Invalid, already played]

    A Slower Speed of Light [Invalid, already played]

    Scrandle

    Epistory

    The Forgotten City

    ANTE

    Europa Universalis IV

    Silicon Zeroes

    Factorio [Invalid, already played]

    Magic the Gathering [Invalid, already played]

    Zendo

    Jahooma's logic box

    Civilization VI [Invalid, already played]

    Murder, she bet

    Terraforming Mars [Invalid, already played]

    Captain of Industry

    Hackmud

    Cool Math Games [Invalid, not a game]

    Duo Lingo [Invalid, not a game]

    Democracy 3

    Plague Inc: Evolved

    Age of Empires II [Invalid, already played]

    Airport CEO

    Kerbal Space Program [Invalid, already played]

    Chess [Invalid, already played]

    Cellcraft [Invalid, already played]

    Imperivm: Great Battles of Rome

    Pharaoh

    Untrusted

    Cinco Paus

    We Become What We Behold

    Sine Rider

    http://robozzle.com/

    https://logicbox.jahooma.com/

    https://lab.quantumflytrap.com/

    The Battle of Polytopia

    https://microcorruption.com/

    Frog Fractions

    Poker [Invalid, already played]

    Monopoly [Invalid, already played]

    15

    10

    9

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

    Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM
    10.09%chance
    364362

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2985

    335

    In which city will the 2036 Olympic Games be held?

    Feb 9, 6:58 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM
    19979

    OptionProbability

    Ahmedabad

    Doha

    Other

    Istanbul

    Buenos Aires

    Munich

    Seoul

    Chongqing

    Santiago

    Berlin

    Budapest

    Rome

    Johannesburg

    Nusantara

    Chengdu

    Boston

    Madrid

    34

    20

    20

    6

    5

    4

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    Which countries/nations/states will be playable in Civilization 8 on release?

    Jan 16, 6:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    12397

    OptionProbability

    China

    Japan

    India

    United States

    Rome

    Greece

    Germany

    Spain

    Egypt

    Russia

    France

    England

    Korea

    Persia

    Zulu

    Babylon

    Aztecs

    Mongolia

    Ottomans

    Songhai

    Mexico

    Shawnee

    Siam

    Brazil

    Canada

    Poland

    Portugal

    Khmer

    Normans

    Scythians

    Mississippian

    97

    95

    94

    94

    93

    92

    89

    80

    80

    80

    69

    69

    69

    69

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    36

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    14

    8

    Additional withdrawal notifications to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court before the end of the decade

    May 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
    5.09%chance
    6241

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    499

    154

    Rome-Paris Vactrain by 2070?

    Dec 23, 11:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    26.58%chance
    6212

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    166

    60

    Cairo-Rome Vactrain by 2070?

    Dec 22, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    30.01%chance
    5188

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    153

    65

    Will Anthropic open Rome office by 2027?

    May 22, 7:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    12.85%chance
    4174

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    260

    38

    Will Romeo Stevens achieve Stage9 jhana by EOY2029?

    Jul 22, 10:38 PMJul 30, 3:59 AM
    79.63%chance
    1100

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    198

    51

    If Tetra draws a shoggoth about this paper or post, will it get >3K views in 24 hours?

    Oct 7, 10:00 PMJan 1, 10:49 PM
    380

    OptionProbability

    FutureLivingLab, iFlow ROME, Safety-Aligned Data Composition https://huggingface.co/papers/2512.24873

    MIRI, "How could an LLM destroy humanity?" short https://youtube.com/shorts/Z6oPeFvp6_s

    MIRI, An International Agreement to Prevent the Premature Creation of Artificial Superintelligence, Notes on Article VI https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.10783

    Epoch AI, How many AI agents could run on the AI chips shipped through 2027? https://epoch.ai/publications/estimating-the-agent-population

    Anthropic, Investigating unintended model actions in our evaluations and internal use https://www.anthropic.com/news/investigating-unintended-model-actions

    Kirgis & Hua, The Continual Constitutional Convention: How language models revise the documents that govern them https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/c9woewdY9ddsPqf3J/the-continual-constitutional-convention-how-language-models

    Anthropic, Rosu & Wang, Training Alignment Auditors via Reinforcement Learning https://alignment.anthropic.com/2026/training-alignment-auditors/

    100

    65

    63

    50

    50

    50

    50

    What will be the next Imperator: Rome tag that Tetraspace does a complete playthrough with?

    May 10, 8:08 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM
    11

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Rome

    98

    2

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