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Prediction markets for South China Sea

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, where it will be dropped first?

Nov 2, 10:52 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

296304

OptionProbability

Iran

Ukraine

South China Sea

India

Pakistan

Russia

United States

Taiwan

Jerusalem

Belarus

South Korea

Seoul

Okinawa

The Philippines

Guam

China

Gaza Strip

Washington DC

55

13

11

10

10

9

8

7

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?

Mar 23, 6:29 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

24.94%chance

443462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

726

Will China collapse before 2030

Dec 16, 3:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

201300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1474

907

Will China acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?

Feb 18, 12:44 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

22%chance

10485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

137

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

925

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?

Dec 17, 1:09 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

82.9%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

217

64

Will China escalate it’s claim to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea before the end of 2025?

Apr 11, 10:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.25%chance

8153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

278

177

Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?

Dec 16, 8:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.08%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

90

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