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Top stories

Judge Lance E. Walker Upholds Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Defunding Medicaid for Maine Planned Parenthood Clinics

Judge Lance E. Walker Upholds Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Defunding Medicaid for Maine Planned Parenthood Clinics

Authors

13

3 months ago

Insurers Seek 20% Hike for 2026 ACA Plans as Tax Credits Sunset

Insurers Seek 20% Hike for 2026 ACA Plans as Tax Credits Sunset

Authors

21

3 months ago

Labor Chief Unveils Trump Banner, Touts ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ at Cabinet Meeting

Labor Chief Unveils Trump Banner, Touts ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ at Cabinet Meeting

Authors

5

3 months ago

U.S. National Debt Tops $37 Trillion as Big Beautiful Bill Triggers $491 Billion Medicare Cuts and Record $1.2 Trillion Interest Expense

Authors

23

4 months ago

US Domestic Policy

Rowdy Crowds Disrupt Town Halls for LaMalfa and Crockett

Authors

11

4 months ago

CBO: Trump’s Tax Law Causes $1,200 Loss for Poorest, $13,600 Gain for Richest, Adds $4T Debt, Risks $500B Medicare Cuts

Authors

35

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Big Beautiful Bill

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.49%chance

399623404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10180

367

Elon Musk and Donald Trump be on good terms again by EOY 2025?

Sep 28, 8:22 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

87.15%chance

211358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

38

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2025?

Nov 2, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.26%chance

151230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

ICE spends at least $25.5 billion in 2025? (budget estimate: $30 billion)

Jul 7, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.18%chance

19929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1782

520

Will the average car sold in the US in 2030 be smaller than the average car sold (in the US) in 2025

Aug 3, 5:33 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM

61.88%chance

7357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1274

785

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

66

52

51

45

38

37

37

34

Will the $250 visa integrity fee be implemented by June 11, 2026?

Aug 18, 6:05 AMJun 10, 11:59 PM

66.7%chance

889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

71

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
US Legislation
Politics
Labor Chief Unveils Trump Banner, Touts ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ at Cabinet Meeting
Authors
5
3 months ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
US Legislation
US Judiciary
Politics
Judge Lance E. Walker Upholds Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Defunding Medicaid for Maine Planned Parenthood Clinics
Authors
13
3 months ago
Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
US Legislation
Economics
Politics
Insurers Seek 20% Hike for 2026 ACA Plans as Tax Credits Sunset
Authors
21
3 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
US Legislation
Economics
Politics
U.S. National Debt Tops $37 Trillion as Big Beautiful Bill Triggers $491 Billion Medicare Cuts and Record $1.2 Trillion Interest Expense
Authors
23
4 months ago
Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
US Elections
US Domestic Policy
California
Rowdy Crowds Disrupt Town Halls for LaMalfa and Crockett
Authors
11
4 months ago
Aug 12, 2025
Aug 12, 2025
US Legislation
Economics
Politics
CBO: Trump’s Tax Law Causes $1,200 Loss for Poorest, $13,600 Gain for Richest, Adds $4T Debt, Risks $500B Medicare Cuts
Authors
35
4 months ago

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