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Top stories

Sphere Debuts AI-Enhanced ‘Wizard of Oz’ on 16K, 160,000-Sq-Ft Screen

Sphere Debuts AI-Enhanced ‘Wizard of Oz’ on 16K, 160,000-Sq-Ft Screen

Authors

10

10 months ago

Honor Brings Ultra-Thin Magic V5 Foldable to Europe for €1.999

Honor Brings Ultra-Thin Magic V5 Foldable to Europe for €1.999

Authors

25

10 months ago

Alphabet Shares Top $211, Notch Another Record on AI Optimism

Alphabet Shares Top $211, Notch Another Record on AI Optimism

Authors

13

10 months ago

Google Brings Gemini CLI to Zed, Launches Open Agent Protocol

Authors

16

10 months ago

Google Makes Vids Free, Adds AI Avatars and Image-to-Video Tool

Authors

31

10 months ago

a16z List Shows ChatGPT Leads as AI App Market Matures

Authors

19

10 months ago

Google Touts Low-Energy Gemini Prompts as AI Power Demand Swells

Authors

13

10 months ago

Google Tests Agent and Immersive Modes to Broaden Gemini AI

Authors

18

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Gemini

By when will Google add ads to Gemini?

Dec 8, 7:05 PMDec 8, 6:54 PM

2411233

OptionProbability

By Jan 1, 2028

By Jan 1, 2027

By Dec 1, 2026

By Nov 1, 2026

By Oct 1, 2026

By Sep 1, 2026

By Aug 1, 2026

By Jul 1, 2026

By Jun 1, 2026

By May 1, 2026

By Jan 1, 2026

By Feb 1, 2026

By Mar 1, 2026

By Apr 1, 2026

84

53

49

48

46

31

16

4

2

1

0

0

0

0

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Feb 2, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

397030

OptionProbability

Before March 2027

Before February 2027

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

95

94

86

72

50

23

16

9

1

0

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

May 19, 1:01 AMJul 19, 1:00 AM

58.95%chance

496593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

835

Gemini 4 released in 2026?

Dec 14, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84%chance

404858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2122

606

Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?

May 20, 4:22 AMSep 1, 4:20 AM

24.94%chance

254773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1735

576

Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.91%chance

231621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

882

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Will the next major AI model (GPT-5, Gemini 2.0, etc.) be able to correctly predict this market's resolution?

Dec 14, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.91%chance

8249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

89

Will "Gemini's Hypothetical Present" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 1, 9:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Gemini 3 is Evaluation-Paranoid and Contaminated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 21, 6:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

google gemini 5.0 AGI release by

Jan 16, 3:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

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