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Top stories

Sphere Debuts AI-Enhanced ‘Wizard of Oz’ on 16K, 160,000-Sq-Ft Screen

Sphere Debuts AI-Enhanced ‘Wizard of Oz’ on 16K, 160,000-Sq-Ft Screen

Authors

10

7 months ago

Honor Brings Ultra-Thin Magic V5 Foldable to Europe for €1.999

Honor Brings Ultra-Thin Magic V5 Foldable to Europe for €1.999

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25

7 months ago

Alphabet Shares Top $211, Notch Another Record on AI Optimism

Alphabet Shares Top $211, Notch Another Record on AI Optimism

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13

7 months ago

Google Brings Gemini CLI to Zed, Launches Open Agent Protocol

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7 months ago

Google Makes Vids Free, Adds AI Avatars and Image-to-Video Tool

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31

7 months ago

a16z List Shows ChatGPT Leads as AI App Market Matures

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Google Touts Low-Energy Gemini Prompts as AI Power Demand Swells

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Google Tests Agent and Immersive Modes to Broaden Gemini AI

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7 months ago

Prediction markets for Gemini

Gemini 3 (Google) release (No Double Speak Version)

Nov 6, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7069448

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2025-12-15

Before 2025-11-21

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-11-14

Before 2025-11-10

83

79

75

74

0

0

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Dec 14, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

397023

OptionProbability

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

84

77

57

25

12

2

0

0

0

Gemini 4 released in 2026?

Dec 14, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.21%chance

314092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1689

706

Gemini 3 Deep Think Frontier Math 1-3 Score

Nov 21, 6:56 PMMar 31, 5:54 PM

133302

OptionProbability

50 - 55%

45 - 50%

55 - 60%

40 - 45%

60 - 65%

<40%

65 - 70%

80%+

70 - 75%

75 - 80%

29

28

18

11

6

3

2

2

1

1

Gemini perfect score on IMO 2026?

Jul 23, 2:30 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

36.37%chance

482469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.91%chance

231621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

882

By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?

Feb 2, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6469

OptionProbability

< 0.05x

0.05x - 0.2x

0.2x - 0.5x

0.5x - 0.9x

0.9x - 1.1x

> 1.1x

41

21

15

11

8

5

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Will "Gemini 3 is Evaluation-Paranoid and Contaminated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 21, 6:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Gemini's Hypothetical Present" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 1, 9:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will ANY Gemini or Apollo astronaut become centenarian?

Mar 10, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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