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Top stories

Sphere Debuts AI-Enhanced ‘Wizard of Oz’ on 16K, 160,000-Sq-Ft Screen

Sphere Debuts AI-Enhanced ‘Wizard of Oz’ on 16K, 160,000-Sq-Ft Screen

Authors

10

8 months ago

Honor Brings Ultra-Thin Magic V5 Foldable to Europe for €1.999

Honor Brings Ultra-Thin Magic V5 Foldable to Europe for €1.999

Authors

25

8 months ago

Alphabet Shares Top $211, Notch Another Record on AI Optimism

Alphabet Shares Top $211, Notch Another Record on AI Optimism

Authors

13

8 months ago

Google Brings Gemini CLI to Zed, Launches Open Agent Protocol

Authors

16

8 months ago

Google Makes Vids Free, Adds AI Avatars and Image-to-Video Tool

Authors

31

8 months ago

a16z List Shows ChatGPT Leads as AI App Market Matures

Authors

19

8 months ago

Google Touts Low-Energy Gemini Prompts as AI Power Demand Swells

Authors

13

8 months ago

Google Tests Agent and Immersive Modes to Broaden Gemini AI

Authors

18

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Gemini

By when will Google add ads to Gemini?

Dec 8, 7:05 PMDec 8, 6:54 PM

229721

OptionProbability

By Jan 1, 2028

By Jan 1, 2027

By Dec 1, 2026

By Nov 1, 2026

By Oct 1, 2026

By Sep 1, 2026

By Aug 1, 2026

By Jul 1, 2026

By Jun 1, 2026

By May 1, 2026

By Jan 1, 2026

By Feb 1, 2026

By Mar 1, 2026

By Apr 1, 2026

62

32

26

25

23

14

8

5

4

1

0

0

0

0

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Feb 2, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

304455

OptionProbability

Before March 2027

Before February 2027

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

86

82

79

67

39

23

20

20

18

4

Gemini 4 released in 2026?

Dec 14, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.68%chance

334232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1924

647

When will Gemini CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33253

OptionProbability

June 2026

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

December 2026 (or later)

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

January 2026

February 2026

15

14

14

13

8

7

7

7

7

7

1

1

Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.91%chance

231621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

882

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Will Apple announce Gemini-powered Siri features at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?

May 1, 10:01 AMJun 13, 6:00 AM

76.03%chance

10146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

74

Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMJul 31, 10:00 PM

74%chance

673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

77

Will "Gemini 3 is Evaluation-Paranoid and Contaminated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 21, 6:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Gemini's Hypothetical Present" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 1, 9:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will ANY Gemini or Apollo astronaut become centenarian?

Mar 10, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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