Independence Day News

Russia and Ukraine Swap 146 Prisoners Each in UAE-Brokered Deal

9 months ago

Ukraine

War

US Foreign Policy

Trump Envoy Kellogg Joins Ukraine Independence Day in Kyiv

9 months ago

Germany

Ukraine

War

Germany's Klingbeil Visits Kyiv, Commits to Security Guarantees for Ukraine

9 months ago

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 15, 10:37 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

8957478

OptionProbability

Democratic House and Senate

Democratic House, Republican Senate

Republican House and Senate

Other

Republican House, Democratic Senate

For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

Dec 17, 12:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3219794

OptionProbability

04/01 April Fools Day

12/25 Christmas

10/31 Halloween

Thanksgiving

11/03 U.S. Election Day

06/** Pride Month

Fall equinox (or fall in general)

Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

Any Manifest

12/31 New Year's Eve

05/27 Memorial Day

07/04 U.S. Independence Day

Juneteenth

Spring equinox (or spring in general)

Mother's Day

Father's Day

Labor Day

11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day

Summer Solstice (or summer in general)

04/22 Earth Day

05/04 Star Wars Day

05/05 Cinco de Mayo

03/08 International Women's Day

The Oscars

03/14 Pi Day

Saint Patrick's Day

Easter

Cortina Winter Olympics

100

Will Justin Trudeau be Canada's Prime Minister on October 10, 2026?

Sep 2, 7:17 PMOct 11, 3:59 AM

1%chance

1819748

OptionVotes

YES

9950

101

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

77.79%chance

6811466

OptionVotes

YES

1873

535

Will the Epstein letter to Nassar be proven to be real?

Dec 24, 4:42 AMJan 1, 4:41 AM

6.57%chance

176375

OptionVotes

YES

3772

265

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Jul 8, 9:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.88%chance

394493

OptionVotes

YES

2013

734

How biased is this coin?

Aug 25, 8:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

453276

OptionVotes

YES

1314

901

Can i do 100 days of tango under 1 minute (LinkedIn game) second try

Apr 7, 8:49 AMJul 16, 8:48 AM

40.88%chance

132012

OptionVotes

YES

1203

831

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

YES

1063

784

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

43.91%chance

2501

OptionVotes

YES

10501

9321

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

36.34%chance

3206

OptionVotes

YES

10206

9628

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What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

Will Justin Trudeau be Canada's Prime Minister on October 10, 2026?

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Will the Epstein letter to Nassar be proven to be real?

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

How biased is this coin?

Can i do 100 days of tango under 1 minute (LinkedIn game) second try

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram