OptionProbability
2025 [resolves on Jan 1st]
The death of Jimmy Carter
The Paris Olympics closing ceremony
The launch of GPT-5
The release of the iPhone 16
Both the 2024 US & UK General Elections
Bitcoin reaches $100k
Elon Musk has another child
GTA 6 release
The death of Joe Biden
The war in Ukraine comes to an end
A Category 5 hurricane hits the US
Weak AGI achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
Peak Oil Demand
The Enhanced Games opening ceremony
Man’s return to the moon
EV sales in the USA overtake ICE
Will Smith attends the Oscars
AGI is achieved as judged by Manifold
A "superintelligent oracle" achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
Bitcoin falls to $30k
Female US President
Donald Trump goes to jail
Prince William and Kate divorce
100
99
95
85
84
55
52
49
43
42
34
25
24
17
9
7
6
iPhone 16
iPhone 18
iPhone 19+
iPhone 17
iPhone 15
39
28
4
1
By 2027 (iPhone 19)
By 2030 (iPhone 22)
By 2029 (iPhone 21)
By 2028 (iPhone 20)
By 2026 (iPhone 18)
No changes until after 2030
By 2024 (iPhone 16)
By 2025 (iPhone 17)
83
81
80
76
50
0
September 2025
October 2025
November 2025
December 2025
Other
June 2025
March 2025
April 2025
May 2025
26
18
16
10
5
3
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