OptionProbability
2025 [resolves on Jan 1st]
The death of Jimmy Carter
The Paris Olympics closing ceremony
The launch of GPT-5
The release of the iPhone 16
Both the 2024 US & UK General Elections
Bitcoin reaches $100k
The Enhanced Games opening ceremony
Elon Musk has another child
GTA 6 release
The death of Joe Biden
A Category 5 hurricane hits the US
Labour wins a UK general election
The war in Ukraine comes to an end
Peak Oil Demand
Man’s return to the moon
EV sales in the USA overtake ICE
Will Smith attends the Oscars
Weak AGI achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
Bitcoin falls to $30k
AGI is achieved as judged by Manifold
A "superintelligent oracle" achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
Donald Trump goes to jail
Female US President
Prince William and Kate divorce
100
99
96
86
85
77
75
52
43
40
34
33
25
17
9
6
4
iPhone 16
iPhone 18
iPhone 19+
iPhone 17
iPhone 15
39
28
1
By 2029 (iPhone 21)
By 2030 (iPhone 22)
By 2028 (iPhone 20)
By 2027 (iPhone 19)
No changes until after 2030
By 2026 (iPhone 18)
By 2024 (iPhone 16)
By 2025 (iPhone 17)
93
92
90
50
10
0
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