OptionProbability
The death of Jimmy Carter
The Paris Olympics closing ceremony
The release of the iPhone 16
Both the 2024 US & UK General Elections
Bitcoin reaches $100k
2025 [resolves on Jan 1st]
Elon Musk has another child
The war in Ukraine comes to an end
GTA 6 release
A Category 5 hurricane hits the US
The launch of GPT-5
The death of Joe Biden
Weak AGI achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
Peak Oil Demand
The Enhanced Games opening ceremony
Man’s return to the moon
EV sales in the USA overtake ICE
Will Smith attends the Oscars
A "superintelligent oracle" achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
AGI is achieved as judged by Manifold
Bitcoin falls to $30k
Female US President
Donald Trump goes to jail
Prince William and Kate divorce
100
99
91
87
84
82
58
52
46
43
42
40
34
25
20
17
7
6
OptionVotes
NO
YES
110
By 2030 (iPhone 22)
By 2029 (iPhone 21)
By 2028 (iPhone 20)
By 2027 (iPhone 19)
By 2026 (iPhone 18)
No changes until after 2030
By 2025 (iPhone 17)
By 2024 (iPhone 16)
81
80
76
66
50
9
September 2025
October 2025
November 2025
December 2025
Other
June 2025
March 2025
April 2025
May 2025
26
18
16
10
5
3
iPhone 16
iPhone 17
iPhone 18
iPhone 19+
iPhone 15
23
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