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Top stories

US, UK, France, Canada and 10 Allies Accuse Iran of Assassination, Kidnapping Targeting Dissidents; Iran Denies Claims

US Foreign Policy

US, UK, France, Canada and 10 Allies Accuse Iran of Assassination, Kidnapping Targeting Dissidents; Iran Denies Claims

Authors

12

2 days ago

US Sanctions Seven Indian Firms Among 20 Companies in Largest Iran Petroleum Trade Crackdown in Seven Years

US Foreign Policy

US Sanctions Seven Indian Firms Among 20 Companies in Largest Iran Petroleum Trade Crackdown in Seven Years

Authors

7

3 days ago

Iran’s Pezeshkian Begins First State Visit to Pakistan, Targets $10 Billion Trade

Iran’s Pezeshkian Begins First State Visit to Pakistan, Targets $10 Billion Trade

Authors

5

13 hours ago

Iran Says Gas Dispute With Iraq Nears Resolution

Authors

3

7 hours ago

Executive Orders

US Foreign Policy

U.S. Treasury Hits Shamkhani Fleet in Biggest Iran Sanctions Since 2018

Authors

7

3 days ago

Mexican Peso Hits 19.16-18 Range Amid Iran-Israel Ceasefire, Chile Rate Cut, and BMV Drops 1.17%

Authors

8

3 days ago

US Foreign Policy

Trump Warns He Would Strike Iran If Nuclear Work Restarts

Authors

6

5 days ago

Iran Executes Two MEK Members for Attacks Using Improvised Mortars on Civilians and Public Institutions

Authors

6

7 days ago

Prediction markets for Iranian

Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity resulting in US casualties before September 11, 2025

Jun 14, 1:27 AMSep 10, 11:59 PM

5.85%chance

195684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4012

249

Iranian strike on U.S. soil in 2025?

Jun 23, 6:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.93%chance

163093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3225

319

US boots on Iranian soil in 2025?

Jun 23, 6:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.39%chance

121518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

426

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

37.22%chance

211474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

770

Will Iranian government action cause the deaths of at least 10 Americans within the borders of the US in 2025?

Jun 22, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18%chance

22765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

Iranian Regime survives Trump Administration?

Apr 7, 8:59 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

44.59%chance

13322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will the Iranian regime survive the date it predicted for Israel's destruction?

Oct 6, 12:43 PMSep 9, 8:59 PM

20.41%chance

7189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

51

Number of alleged Iranian spies caught in Israel from 7.10.2023 until the 31.12.2025

Jun 30, 8:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5151

OptionProbability

50-75

40-49

76-100

100+

30-39

53

19

18

7

3

Iranian fuel & gunpowder factory explosions caused by foreign actors?

Apr 29, 4:29 PMDec 31, 5:07 PM

21.44%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Any of the Iranian National Jewels is stolen or destroyed or lost through 2031

Aug 31, 4:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.94%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

83

Will the two US citizens involved in the Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump be convicted?

Nov 8, 6:01 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

67.77%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

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