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Prediction markets for Long Range
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
72.72%chance
708696396
OptionVotes
22531
4727
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40208432
OptionProbability
99
1
OptionProbability
50
25
20
18
15
15
14
13
11
10
10
0
0
0
Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?
Feb 14, 1:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
11.15%chance
12822570
OptionVotes
2791
261
What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)
May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
36.1%chance
2218272
OptionVotes
1041
910
OptionProbability
96
95
95
90
9
8
6
5
4
1
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.68%chance
133709
OptionVotes
6632
3220
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
57.61%chance
552029
OptionVotes
1261
970
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
26.97%chance
251329
OptionVotes
1017
852
OptionProbability
1014
861
OptionProbability
31
26
16
11
9
5
3
OptionVotes
1115
1009
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