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Mac News

    Prediction markets for Mac

    Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

    Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
    47.42%chance
    2538259

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    10722

    9307

    OptionProbability

    A person has a moral right to own a gun

    We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

    GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

    The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

    Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

    Other

    Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

    Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

    Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

    Being a billionaire is morally wrong

    The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

    It is not possible to multitask

    Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

    Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

    Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

    Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

    OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

    The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

    There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

    Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

    Tech bros are really, really annoying

    Capitalism has done far more harm than good

    Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

    Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

    We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

    COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

    Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

    California is wildly overrated.

    Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

    Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

    Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

    Music is a net negative for humanity

    Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

    Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

    Abortion is morally wrong

    jskf's password is ***************

    The first American moon landing was faked

    There is no Dog

    Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

    Cars should not have sound systems

    AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

    Pet ownership is morally wrong

    LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

    SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

    It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

    There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

    Cascadia should be an independent country

    Children should not be raised in nuclear families

    The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

    Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

    If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

    Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

    @Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

    Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

    We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

    SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

    Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

    The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

    Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

    Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

    It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

    This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

    Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

    The next American moon landing will be faked

    Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

    We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

    Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

    Cars are a societal net negative

    Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

    Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

    Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.

    19

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    Super Smash Bros. Stocks

    Oct 27, 12:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    5114250

    OptionProbability

    Kirby

    Pit

    Captain Falcon

    Luigi

    Donkey Kong

    Jigglypuff

    Lucina

    Toon Link

    Mario

    Link

    Samus

    Pikachu

    Ness

    Peach

    Bowser

    Ice Climbers

    Sheik

    Zelda

    Dr. Mario

    Pichu

    Falco

    Marth

    Young Link

    Ganondorf

    Roy

    Meta Knight

    Zero Suit Samus

    Wario

    Sonic

    King Dedede

    R.O.B

    Wolf

    Villager

    Mega Man

    Little Mac

    Greninja

    Shulk

    Bowser Jr.

    Duck Hunt

    Ryu

    Cloud

    Bayonetta

    Inkling

    Ridley

    Simon Belmont

    Richter

    King K. Rool

    Isabelle

    Piranha Plant

    Steve

    Other

    Yoshi

    Fox

    Mewtwo

    Mr. Game & Watch

    Snake

    Ike

    PKMN Trainer

    Diddy Kong

    Lucas

    Olimar

    Lucario

    Wii Fit Trainer

    Rosalina & Luma

    Mii Fighter

    Palutena

    Pac-Man

    Robin

    Corrin

    Incineroar

    Joker

    Hero

    Banjo-Kazooie

    Terry Bogard

    Byleth

    20

    18

    7

    6

    4

    3

    3

    3

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

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    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    Will a Big Mac cost more than $10 in 2026?

    Jan 13, 8:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    9.1%chance
    242794

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3072

    489

    OptionProbability

    Has eye tracking

    Has Mac Virtual Display functionality

    Has external battery

    Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.

    Has built in speakers for audio

    Will have a glass front

    Sells more than 1 million units in its first year

    Priced under $2,000

    Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated

    Has "Air" in its name

    Primarily made of aluminum

    Has an external display (like eyesight)

    Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook

    Priced under $1000

    Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).

    Priced lower than $199

    Priced lower than $299

    In consumer hands (anywhere) before April 1st 2025

    95

    89

    87

    72

    72

    66

    50

    50

    50

    49

    47

    38

    19

    18

    13

    7

    5

    4

    OptionProbability

    Toledo

    Western Michigan

    Ohio

    Miami (OH)

    Bowling Green

    Massachusetts

    Sacramento State

    Buffalo

    Eastern Michigan

    Central Michigan

    Ball State

    Kent State

    Akron

    35

    26

    24

    6

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Streamlined NEPA reviews for housing development

    Restricting federal housing assistance based on immigration status

    Eliminating fair housing enforcement programs

    New tax incentives for homebuilders

    Requiring citizenship verification for housing programs

    Expanded first-time homebuyer tax credits

    Ending Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac conservatorship

    Privatizing Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac

    Tariff exemptions for housing construction materials

    Higher interest rates or fees for non-citizen borrowers

    Prohibiting non-citizens from purchasing residential property

    Federal preemption of local zoning laws

    Mortgage rate subsidies or buydowns

    Capped mortgage rate

    100

    100

    100

    100

    90

    55

    50

    45

    45

    41

    41

    37

    31

    26

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    697

    74

    OptionProbability

    Over 10^18 Big Macs

    10^12-10^15 Big Macs

    0 Big Macs

    10^15-10^18 Big Macs

    1-10^9 Big Macs

    10^9- 10^12 Big Macs

    28

    19

    18

    18

    9

    8

    OptionProbability

    SEC

    Big Ten

    ACC

    FBS Independents

    Big 12

    MAC

    Mountain West

    PAC-12

    American

    Sun Belt

    C-USA

    45

    16

    15

    9

    5

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    120

    21

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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