
OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
10+ goals in any match
2+ red cards in any match
2+ European countries reach top 4
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
3+ penalty shootout
Mexico survives group stage
Canada survives group stage
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
South American team reaches semi-final
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Player throws captains armband
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Champion is unbeaten
USA player gets the red card
Disruption at Iran match
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Spain goes further than France
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
US scores in every single group stage match
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Bottle thrown on field
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Team finishes match with 9 players
25+ people arrested at stadium
French-born player scores against France
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Champion is a first place group stage winner
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
Trump still alive at end of final match
“Puto” chant at match
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Referee falls down
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Trump attends match
Neymar plays in a match
Player dies during World Cup
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
Player tears their ACL
Players cleat falls off their foot
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
Messi to score a free kick
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
Team loses after leading 2-0
Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats
World Cup winner to never trail in a match
Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds
Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match
Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)
Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play
First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)
This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders
Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane
Short Fuse: The Netherlands - Morocco ends in penalties
Any match is 0-0 going into penalty shootouts
Panenka penalty to be scored
Player scores 8+ goals
Player gets a straight red card in Round of 16
A team scores 4 goals in a knockout round game
A team loses after scoring 3 unanswered goals
Spain scores 3 or more goals against Austria [Short Fuse]
An even number of games go to a shootout
Any team scores 4 unanswered goals in a knockout stage match
Flash Market: No goals in 2nd half stoppage time today (July 3 - last three Rd of 32 games)
More goals scored in 3rd Place Match than in the Final (excluding penalty shootouts)
England v Mexico Match on July 5 rescheduled to a different time? (Currently scheduled 6pm local time)
Mexicans mess with England team before match in the any way (fireworks, beeping, delays)
Paraguay is playing undeniably the Haramball tonight
German Freddy back on the twitter (formerly known as the x) before end of final
In quarterfinals, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games
team that wins bronze has more goals across tournament than both gold and silver
Infantino and Trump sitting next to each other at any match
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (QF)
Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (QF)
Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (QF)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (QF)
USA strikes Iran anytime from start of quarterfianals to ending of them
Trump flies in the Qatari Air Force One to final
Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarilla goes on another rant about Mbappe before end of final
France, Spain, England & Argentina all go to Half Finales
Mikel Merino finishes the World Cup with more or the same number of goals as Lamine Yamal
A French player leaves the field injured against Spain (like Mendes and Courtois)
Goal scored in stoppage time (SF)
Over 3.5 goals scored (SF)
Goal scored from a header (SF)
Goal is disallowed for offside (SF)
Team wins by exactly 1 goal (SF)
Mitch McConnell alive for entire final match?
match
Over 4.5 goals in semi finals
Substitute scores in semi finals
Spain ball posession under 55.5% in semi final
Ball hits the woodwork in semi final match
English fans acting unruly before, during or after Argentina match
Both England and Argentina score a goal in the semifinal
Both Teams to Score Argentina/ England in 90minutes plus stoppage time. (Not Extra time)
Match ends in a draw in regular time (F)
Final combined match score is an odd number (F)
Goal is disallowed for offside (F)
Team wins by exactly 1 goal (F)
Match is won in extra-time (F)
Goalkeeper ends match with a clean sheet (F)
Substitute scores a goal (F)
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (F)
Spain first to score (F)
Match is tied at halftime (F)
First yellow card given to Argentina (F)
Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (F)
Trump touches in any way the Messi at final match/stadium
Argentinian player leaves injured in the final (like Mendes, Courtois and Saliba)
Score 0-0 in first part of extra time
Spain wins
Argentina lose Spain
World Cup team coach resigns or is fired before end of July (after final)
Asian player gets the red card
FIFA’s official total revenue for the 2023-2026 cycle exceed $16.billion
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
Asian player misses penalty kick
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
No red cards issued in the Final match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
15+ cards in any match
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
Goal scored within 1st minute
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
20+ penalty goals
30+ penalty goals
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Asia team reaches semi final
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Player bit during match
Bald person gets the red card
Football is coming home?
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
Headbutt during match
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Someone escorted off field shirtless
Player gets spat on during match
Ronaldo gets in referee face
England loses on penalties
More own goals than red cards in tourney
VAR overturns second yellow card
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Player shits in the pants during match
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Trump attends 3 or more games
All 3 host countries win the opener
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Flares in stands during match in USA
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Elon Musk attends match
Betting scandal reported
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Any host nation in quarter final
US goes further than Mexico
Canada goes further than US
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Goal scored from own half
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
Team captain gets red card
Ronaldo scores before Messi
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Team gets removed or disqualified
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
2 UEFA teams in final
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Any match is canceled or postponed
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
Fans invade field during match
Major security incident
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Match is forfeited
Bonnie Blue attending a match
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Salt Bae attending a match
King Charles attends match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
Ronaldo does jerkin move
Trump dancing at match
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
Player suffers cardiac arrest
Winning team has a foreign manager
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Another match with 3+ red cards
Players / members of team attempt to defect
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Freddy attends the final match
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Messi gets a yellow card
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
Messi scores on every game he plays
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Ronaldo does not start
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
5+ hat tricks
Messi scores more goals than Mbappe
Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds
Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)
Over 14.5 own goals scored
Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310
Emmanuel Macron attends match
The Netherlands reaches half-final
16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)
17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!
France becomes finalist
France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals
Belgium plays against The Netherlands
Of 5 competing continents, Europe has highest survival % in round of 32
16+ Knockout Stage Clean Sheets (0–0 after ET counts as 2)
Short Fuse: Germany scores 3 or more goals against Paraguay
FIFA officially apologizes or announces a general review of the VAR system following Germany’s disallowed goal vs Paraguay
Messi scores a goal in every match Argentina plays in
Overall penalty conversion rate to be 66.67% or higher ( all penalties no matter when)
Norway becomes finalist
Panenka penalty to be bottled
Three straight games going to penalties
Messi scores a goal in penalty shootout
Any team gets to penalty shootout and doesn't score a goal
Player with 9 or more assists
Enock Kabwende shown during broadcast
Announcer says Doctor Congo during 7/1 match broadcast
Any Trump attending BIH v USA match
Lead (or tied lead) goal scorer is on the team that wins the World Cup
World Cup winner won at least 2 games by shootout
A host country reaches the semi-finals
Belgium becomes finalist
Croatia gets a red card against Portugal [Short Fuse]
In knockouts, more teams with red cards WIN their matches
Round of 16 Special: „My vision, my rules“ - Referee sticks to original (no) Penalty, Goal or Red Card decision after On-Field Review
🇦🇷 ARG vs CPV 🇨🇻 – ARG wins both halves and scores more than three times as many goals as CPV
Own goal is scored (Rof16)
Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (Rof16)
Ronaldo scores a non-penalty kick goal (Rof16)
Team wins by exactly two goals (Rof16)
Mbappe doing the dictator point
Red card in CAN v MAR?
In round of 16, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games
3 continents reach semifinals
France's appeal successfully overturns Michael Olise's yellow card before the quarter-finals kickoff
Player doing lip trill shown in slow motion during final match broadcast on FOX
Trump attending the USA Belgium match
Trump takes credit for USA win within 1 day
Trump mentioned during USA BEL Fox broadcast today
Pitch Invader during USA BEL match today
Frances' tournament ends before Graham Platner drops out of Maine Senate race
"Is the TV broken?": There will be 4 or more On-Field Reviews (OFR) from the Quarterfinals onwards
"Shocking decision, Ref!": Any goal disallowed by VAR in the Quarterfinals AND any goal disallowed by VAR in the Semifinals (according to ESPN)
There will be a single leader in the Golden Boot ranking after the Quarterfinals (no tiebreak applies)
Norway player displays the flu like symptoms during match
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (QF)
Own goal is scored (QF)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (QF)
Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (QF)
Announcer says "Tom Brady" during France v Morocco
Player gets straight red card (QF)
Trump picks team he is supporting to win for the final game
Sam Altman attends final
JD Vance attends final
Morrocans stealing the towels or water bottles during game
Any Morrocan gets the red card
Morocco player picks up a ball during France possession 3+ times
France player picks up a ball during Morocco possession 3+ times
Shirtless player on field during match (QF)
Messi misses another penalty shot - includes shootout (QF-F)
Messi subbed out before the end of a match he played in (QF-F)
[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (SF)
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (SF)
Over 0.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (SF)
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (SF)
All teams score 1+ goals (SF)
Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)
Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (SF)
Own goal is scored (SF)
Player gets a straight red card (SF)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (SF)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (SF)
Shirtless player on field during match (SF)
Match is won in extra-time (SF)
Yellow card given for simulation (SF)
Harry Kane scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)
Bellingham gets yellow card (SF)
Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (SF)
Strait of Hormuz open at start of final match?
Over 17.5 corners in semi finals
Mbappe & Oyarzabal to record 2+ shots on target in semi final
Gavi shown card in semi final
Otamendi shown card in semi final
Anything occurring to make it historical final
The market creator deems the result of the final to have been swayed by bias from the referee
Two different players with the same jersey number score in the final
Mbappé leads Golden Boot race after 3rd place match & Messi overtakes in Final to win the Award
Mbappé less than 60 mins on the pitch in Consolation Final 3./4.
Sore Losers: Any player or official from the losing team to instantly remove or reject their silver medal after the Final
Own goal is scored (F)
Intruder on field during match (F)
Goal scored in stoppage time (F)
Over 2.5 goals scored (F)
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (F)
Penalty kick missed during regular/extra time (F)
Goal scored from a header (F)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (F)
Player gets a straight red card (F)
Penalty kick is given in 2nd half (F)
Argentina last to score (F)
[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (F)
Goal scored within the last 15 minutes (F)
Match ends 1-1 in regular time (F)
Final score is 1-2 or 2-1 (F)
Match ends with penalty shoot-out (F)
Winning team has lower total ball possession (F)
Both teams score 1+ goals in 2nd half (F)
Goal is scored from outside the penalty box (F)
Over 1.5 goals scored (F)
All teams score 1+ goals (F)
First yellow card in 2nd half given to Spain (F)
Goal scored in first 15 minutes of 2nd half (F)
Argentina first to score in 2nd half (F)
No yellow cards given in 1st half (F)
Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (F)
Yellow card given for simulation (F)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (F)
Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (F)
Argentina gets a penalty in regular time in the finals
Banner referencing historical territorial dispute visible during final or 3rd place match
"Albiceleste Cardiac Arrest": Argentina scores the game's final goal from 75' onward to win or force extra time (F)
"Pessi's Redemption": Messi scores a penalty and wins the Golden Boot
Javier Milei tweets VLLC or "Viva la libertad carajo" before the winning captain lifts the trophy (F)
The final score in the final is an internet certified funny number e.g. 2-1, 6-7, 6-9, 4-20 (ascending and descending order allowed)
Score 0-0 in second part of extra time
Argentina scores 1-1 in extra time
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OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
Not pardon SBF
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
Stays alive
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Causes Tina Peters' early release
Says 6 7 (or variant)
pass 500 or more executive orders
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
put his name on a ship in the navy
new blockade of a country
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
Pardon himself
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
resume buying oil from Russia
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Dep
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
ten or more protestors killed during term
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state
Raise the retirement age for social security
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Announce he’s running for a third term
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Call for the end of the Senate
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
add a new federal holiday in his honor
have a journalist arrested
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Salute Putin
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Get rid of Noaa.
force a former president to testify before Congress
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Implement a federal age of consent
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Add a citizenship question to the census
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
Enact price controls on groceries
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
stops all sanctions on Russia
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
Prosecute someone for flag burning
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Causes derek chauvin's early release
all time high unemployment reached
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Attack a NATO ally.
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Withdraw from NATO
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
ban trans people from holding federal offices
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Annex any part of Mexico
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
take control of a part of greenland
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Pardon p diddy
make statements that are negative about labubu
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fully nationalize an airline
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Implement a federal abortion ban
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal an amendment
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
add a new state
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
declares a white history month
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
bans anime
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
bans 6 7
Kidnap the Pope
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100
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100
100
95
91
88
88
87
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80
76
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72
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57
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8
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8
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6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
The site has content before June 1, 2026
The site has content before July 1, 2026
It contains at least some text
The site has content before January 1, 2027
It's completely stupid
It's about extraterrestrial life
contains debunked media of space alien activity
Documents declassified for the first time are on the site
Mention of Roswell on site
Mention of Area 51 on site
it's about immigration
Implies/suggests/states that UFO's are demons.
Is significantly geo-restricted, for example the content cannot be viewed in Europe or some USA states without using a VPN.
By May 1st, 2026, site contents unequivocally state UAP craft exist, but does not unequivocally state non-human intelligence exists
It's about mexicans
Contains AI images or video presented in a way that viewers are supposed to think they're real.
implies race supremacy/ethnocentrism is real (genetic/cultural/preordained)
It's an advert for a product a private company is selling, such as a movie.
The site has content before April 1, 2026
The site has content before May 1, 2026
There is a report that the registration is hacked or otherwise not deliberate by the government
It redirects to another domain before 12:00am EST May 1, 2026 (If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)
It's going to be used for an April fools joke.
It will have its own Wikipedia page by 5/1
It has a cookie consent banner/notice while viewed from any New York state VPN before 12:00am EST May 1, 2026 (If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)
The government, bored of just selling pardons, has moved on to selling ".gov" domain names to 3rd party private organisations and/or individuals, and this is one of those times.
contains debunked media of space alien activity [N/A – start of 2027]
Aliens.gov will be the primary domain
100
100
100
100
94
75
62
46
33
27
23
21
18
10
9
8
7
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more
human steps on moon again
fable (2026) releases
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
trump dies
Saw XI Releases in USA
grok 6 release date
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
biden dies
stripe ipo happens
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
polymarket or kalshi ipo
windows 12 announcement is made
Netanyahu out as PM of israel
Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory
Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card
putin or zelensky lose power
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)
yoko ono passes away
anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse
noam chomsky passes away
commercial airline hijacked
discord IPO happens
haunted chocolatier release date known
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
playstation 6 announced
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
manifold raises more money
tropico 7 releases
twitter/x releases x mail to some users
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
Cy Young award winner announced
Third dune movie officially announced
beyonce releases an album
apple announces a smart ring
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27
nobel peace prize winner announced
Hades 3 announced (game)
apple announces a touchscreen laptop
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
coup in an african country
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
fourth Knives Out movie announced
playboi carti releases an album
new Doctor Who showrunner announced (after RTD departure)
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
llama 5 release date
iphone fold release date known
First game of the MLB World Series starts
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
grok 5 release date
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
the first Solar eclipse of the year
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
Patriot Games ending day
Patriot Games starting day
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
fifa world cup - last game ends
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
Taylor swift gets married
ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda
English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)
Kier Starmer out
alan greenspan passes away
Manifest 2026 starts
spacex IPO happens
drake releases an album
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
another trump assassination attempt
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
artemis II mission launches
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
new iphone releases (in the USA)
trump removes a cabinet member
First Apple Event of the year
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
manifold launches real money trading
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)
First Nintendo direct of the year
doomsday clock announcement made
98
98
97
97
96
95
94
94
94
93
93
92
90
89
88
87
85
85
83
83
83
80
78
72
72
71
70
70
70
66
66
66
63
60
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
57
56
55
55
54
54
52
52
51
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50
50
48
46
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43
38
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30
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27
27
26
25
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1223
818
OptionProbability
Extinct (e.g. forerunners, ring builders, old ones)
Crystalline (e.g. silicon substrate)
Other
Tentacled (e.g. squid, jellyfish)
Buoyant (e.g. whales or gas bags)
Carcinoid (e.g. crabs)
Composite (e.g. hermit crabs, the Borg)
Humanoid (e.g. greys, Mexican fakes)
Winged (e.g. birds, pterodactyls)
25
23
22
8
7
7
4
2
2
OptionProbability
Iran
A US civilian
ISIS
Israel
Mexican Cartels
OpenAI
Cuba
Kuwait
Haiti
Venezuela
China
Russia
100
67
50
50
41
36
25
24
17
15
12
11
OptionVotes
YES
NO
997
376
OptionVotes
YES
NO
244
46
OptionProbability
Supervoid (a huge void between us and the primordial CMB)
Statistical fluctuation within standard inflation
Foreground contamination from nearby galaxies
Primordial gravitational wave signatures
Cosmic strings or cosmic texture defects
Quantum entanglement imprint from another universe
Fortuitous match with Spherical Mexican Hat Wavelets
33
33
25
25
23
21
16
OptionVotes
NO
YES
575
457
OptionVotes
YES
NO
98
71


