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OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
"The New Norm" ends
New James Bond actor is presented
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
A new supreme court justice appointed
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
Approval < 35%
USA experiences a recession.
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
trump gets hospitalized
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
Fair elections in 2028
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Vances have another kid
US national bitcoin reserve created
The US leaves the World Health Organization
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Government shutdown
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Joe Biden dies
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
A major war in Asia occurs
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
New
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Trump announces he is tired of winning
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
A national ban on gender-affirming care
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
The department of education gets desolved
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Dow rises above 65,000
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
Approval < 25%
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Tesla
Another pandemic
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Repeal obamacare
Trump says a racial slur
Trump visits Africa
Trump and Obama shake hands
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
54 or more Republican senate seats
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
55 or more Republican senate seats
JD Vance elected President
Trump runs for a third term
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Laura Loomer gets any government role
Record level unemployment
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
Trump gets covid (again)
Constitutional Amendment
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
New national park created
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
Starship lands on Mars
10% fewer government agencies
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump dies
Trump gets shot
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Trump bans abortion nationwide
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
"covfefe" posted again
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
US Invasion of any North/South American country
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
south park is canceled/discontinued
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
John Bolton indicted
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
American Manned Lunar Landing
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
New US national anthem
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Cannabis is federally legalized
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Trump and Melania divorce
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump is assassinated
Constitutional Amendment
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump loses the fake tan
A hurricane will be nuked
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
Jimmy Carter dies
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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OptionProbability
A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm
Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims
An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States
An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies
Chronic Back Pain
Mental illness
Fame
Radical Leftism
Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare
Zizian Murder Cult member
Business
Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.
Genetic predisposition (Italian)
Targeted hit/contract killing
brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic
Personal conflict with CEO
Random act of violence
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OptionProbability
J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.
K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.
C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.
G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.
M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)
Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)
A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.
I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.
B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.
D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.
O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)
E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.
H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.
L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)
F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.
N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.
If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.
You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.
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OptionProbability
Loki face reveal
Other holy knights beside Garling face reveal (at least one)
Usopp powerup (haki or new weapon)
Dragon finally makes a move
Luffy finds out that the Bartolomeo Pirates were destroyed by Shanks's crew
Shanks backstory with Garling involved
Man marked by flames is revealed
Cross guild arrives on Elbaf
Vivi rejoins the crew
Imu face reveal
Kidd washes up on the shore and is seen in the arc
Shanks's crew do a davy back fight with the strawhats
Big Mom returns (must be present in-person)
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OptionProbability
The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company
Zvi will mention the company in a blog post
Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025
The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital
Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist
The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers
The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs
I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025
Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data
The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025
Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company
The company will include at least one image on its website
The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU
The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA
The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will have at least 100 employees
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher
The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)
The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities
The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model
The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)
The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders
The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers
I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)
The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025
The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)
The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier
The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI)
The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability
The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input
The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment
I’ll work there (@mr_mino)
The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment
The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/
The company will be involved in a lawsuit
It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company
The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher
The company will make a GAN
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought
It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)
The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms
It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so
The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers
The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website
The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources
Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company
The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)
The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology
The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory
Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen
The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines
The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages
The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard
The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system
The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system
I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing
Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players
There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members
The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll
The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024
The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations
The company will be acquired by another company
Elon musk will be an investor of the company
The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)
The company will release an app available on iPhone or android
The company will change its name
The company will be merged with or acquired by another company
The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company
The company will build their own AI chips
Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW
The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals
The company will declare bankruptcy
The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract
The company will be publicly traded
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
I'll work there (@AndrewG)
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW
The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be valued at >= $10 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
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OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Premieres in 2027
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Peeves is a reoccurring character
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Hermione is white
mandrake root on screen
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A house elf is shown on screen
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
It's woke
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
At least one of the actors is transgender
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
We get AGI before it premieres
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
Premieres in 2026
Features an explicitly transgender character
Fred and George have the same actor
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Hermione is black
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Hermione is Indian
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
99
98
97
96
94
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
86
80
80
78
78
78
75
75
74
73
70
68
65
65
65
64
63
57
55
55
55
50
50
46
41
40
38
37
35
34
33
33
31
31
31
30
30
29
28
26
26
22
22
22
21
18
16
13
11
11
7
7
6
5
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.
Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.
NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.
The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.
The case settles before a verdict is reached.
New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2024.
The case appears before the Supreme Court.
Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.
OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.
The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.
New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.
New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.
The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.
New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.
New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.
The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.
New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted from the Supreme Court.
81
67
59
54
53
44
40
34
28
27
17
14
13
12
9
5
4
4
3
OptionProbability
K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.
I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.
C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.
B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.
Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)
M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)
A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.
E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.
J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.
O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)
D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.
F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.
L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)
G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.
H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.
N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.
You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.
If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.
20
12
10
8
8
7
6
5
5
5
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Is marketed as Episode X
Red lightsaber on screen
Blue lightsaber on screen
Green lightsaber on screen
Will be announced before 2028
Trailer out before 2028 (teaser counts)
The "Millennium Falcon" is on screen or mentioned
"Darth Sidious" or "Palpatine" is mentioned
Tie fighters on screen
"Darth Vader" is mentioned
A character is a Skywalker (by blood, name does not matter)
A dead character has spoken lines
A dead person appears as something like a ~spirit
New droid companion
Oscar Isaac returns in his previous role
Strong, quasi-masculine-presenting female lead character
Scantily clad hypersexualized female characters
Sole director credit to Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
Digital version of dead actor plays a role
Yellow lightsaber on screen
Scores ≥7.5 on IMDB exactly one month after release
There will be a new lightsaber based weapon form we haven’t seen before (like Kylo’s light saber hilt).
John Boyega returns in his previous role
Adam Driver returns in his previous role
Taxes are mentioned
Droid dances
Using the force to choke someone
Death Star mentioned
Flashback to a period clearly overlapping with movies I-IX
Any actor from the original trilogy plays the same role
Is defined as part of a trilogy, before its premier date
Blue milk on screen
Cantina band song remix
Purple lightsaber on screen
Main character is not human
Somehow, Palpatine returned
Will NOT be announced before 2030
The word "rationalussy" is spoken
85
83
83
79
78
74
72
65
56
54
53
53
51
50
50
50
50
50
46
44
44
44
42
42
41
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
27
26
24
20
1
OptionProbability
Euro
Yuan
Other
Yen
Some universal currency not present today
Bitcoin
53
19
11
10
5
2
OptionProbability
Other
Before humanity colonizes the universe, we must ensure that the future we would build is one worth living in.
Digital minds research is an important and neglected approach to AI safety.
Fun Fact: If you put “fun fact” before a completely made up statement, people are 69% more likely to believe it.
Past-you may have been a willing and enthusiastic sacrifice to present-you, and assuming you'll remain wiser, it was a worthwhile trade.
It's a good idea to buy lots of Microsoft stock right now
It's a good idea to short lots of Microsoft stock right now
If you sacrificed what you valued the most in order to survive, then from viewpoint of past-you you-present are already as good as dead
Capitalism will collapse in 2026
Stop seeking wisdom on a troll website founded to embezzle money
43
34
16
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
OptionProbability
There were no mobile phones: if someone did not show up at a rendezvous, you could only call him at home
It was allowed to smoke in bars and trains, even when children were present
The whole family used the same computer, which stood inside a dedicated piece of furniture
During holidays we used to eat from single-use plastic plates to avoid having to clean the dishes
During long car trips my mum and dad would take turns driving as it was tiring
44
26
15
7
7
