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Prediction markets for Windows
Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?
Sep 8, 12:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
1%chance
6424362
OptionVotes
9954
101
Will the next version of Microsoft Windows operating system (Windows 12) be released before Grand Theft Auto 6?
Dec 29, 4:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
7.15%chance
504386
OptionVotes
2984
120
Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?
Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
30.73%chance
764207
OptionVotes
1281
1116
Will at least one crewed Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2028/2029 launch window?
Sep 8, 12:29 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM
4.27%chance
94026
OptionVotes
4735
211
The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026
Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM
81.04%chance
51125
OptionVotes
2067
484
Will there be another perfect game pitched in the MLB before Windows 12 releases?
Dec 29, 4:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
37.77%chance
18708
OptionVotes
1364
673
Will there exist a competent window manager on MacOS before 2028?
Nov 27, 10:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
35.21%chance
6480
OptionVotes
1356
737
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Mar 29, 2:55 PMJan 15, 12:00 AM
25.95%chance
14430
OptionVotes
105
84
Will Microsoft discontinue Windows in favor of a Windows themed Linux distribution before 2041?
Jan 19, 1:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.13%chance
6395
OptionVotes
1234
949
Will there be a resurgence in the popularity of transom windows by the end of this decade (2020s)?
Jan 15, 7:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
50.57%chance
4232
OptionVotes
1011
989
Will the US mandate all new car windows block UV-A by 2030?
Jul 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45.39%chance
2100
OptionVotes
1097
912
Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?
May 25, 5:03 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
39.13%chance
784
OptionVotes
125
80
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