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Atari 2600+ Pac-Man Edition Console Launches; Invests €4.5 Million to Acquire 82.6% Stake in Thunderful Group

5 days ago

By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.22%chance

162710

OptionVotes

YES

1130

949

Will GPT-5 have Atari skills?

Mar 19, 8:37 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.47%chance

311402

OptionVotes

YES

1422

790

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.94%chance

14898

OptionVotes

YES

1698

695

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Feb 20, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.66%chance

7639

OptionVotes

YES

1373

728

When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?

Apr 9, 8:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5258

OptionProbability

2023-2024

Other

2024-2025

Before 2023

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2032

2032-never

Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026?

Jun 22, 5:25 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.34%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

683

428

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Atari 2600+ Pac-Man Edition Console Launches; Invests €4.5 Million to Acquire 82.6% Stake in Thunderful Group
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By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Will GPT-5 have Atari skills?

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?

Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026?

Latest stories

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