OptionProbability
Gannon Ken Van Dyke
We don't find out by end of 2026
JD Vance (VP)
Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)
Pete Hegseth (SecDef)
Barron Trump
Marco Rubio (Sec State)
John Ratcliffe (CIA)
Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)
Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)
Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)
Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)
Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)
Other
98
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
Groundhog Day is rigged
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Dead Internet theory
Some answers in this market are bought NO because they are true
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Gamergate was right
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
John McAfee didn't kill himself
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
China made covid 19 in a lab
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The CIA killed JFK
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Harold Holt murdered
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Bush did 9/11
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Israel killed JFK
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
The Mandella Effect in general is real
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
QR codes are satanic
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
US government is harboring aliens
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
The illuminati runs the world
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* health care is net negative for health
Q is Putin
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Earth is hollow
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Africa isn't real
Flossing is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
90
88
86
83
82
80
80
76
74
74
71
70
69
60
56
55
53
52
50
47
45
42
42
41
41
40
38
37
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36
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26
26
25
25
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23
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14
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12
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12
12
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11
11
11
10
10
10
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10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)
CIA
Other US government agency or official
Mafia
Other
Cuban government
Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)
KGB / Soviets
LBJ
US military
FBI
Other US leftwing group
Other US rightwing group
US company
Foreign company
Mossad / Israeli government
Other foreign government
Aliens / Illuminati / lizard people
85
8
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)
India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore
A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026
United States troops enter Iran
Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)
Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire
Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba
At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
123
Hostile military action by United States against Cuba
USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
A country declares war on Israel
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Iran undergoes a regime change
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Any country leaves NATO
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran
Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas
USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any NATO country formally declares war on another country
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
A country declares war on United States
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Successful military coup in Venezuela
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
China invades Taiwan
United States formally declares war on Iran
Sudanese Civil War ends
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths
China formally declares war on another country
Egypt formally declares war on another country
Iran loses territory
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Israel loses territory
USA leaves NATO
Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state
Iranian troops enter Israel
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action
India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
United States formally declares war on another country
United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Israel annexes any portion of Iran
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Any US territory comes under Canadian administration
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Humans will extinct
Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
96
96
86
85
75
67
66
65
58
54
53
52
52
51
51
50
50
48
48
48
48
45
45
45
45
45
43
43
42
42
42
42
41
40
40
40
40
39
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36
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32
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
27
27
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
17
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
3
3
2
1
1
0
OptionProbability
John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump
John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
James Comey – Former FBI Director
James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN
John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI
Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama
Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden
Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama
Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden
Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm
Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein
Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller
Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General
Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump
Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office
Joe Biden – President of the United States
Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows
Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI
Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London
Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions
Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump
Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm
Curtis Heide – FBI Agent
Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration
Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama
Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump
Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command
Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump
Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection
Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare
Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General
Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development
Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division
Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm
Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"
Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump
Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS
Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump
Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel
100
100
100
79
76
68
68
66
66
66
58
57
56
56
51
49
48
47
46
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
37
37
36
35
35
34
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
27
27
24
0
OptionProbability
CIA bypassing warrants and oversight; creating massive taxpayer and social security database; via Palantir
criminal activity
Something to do with Donald Trump specifically
Something to do with Tulsi Gabbard
A (alleged) cover up of some kind
Something to do with Jeffrey Epstein
49
46
34
25
24
14
OptionProbability
no
DOC
DHS
Other
FDA
CDC
DOE
NSA
ICE
DEA
SEC
CIA
FBI
DOD
FCC
DOJ
DOT
29
12
10
8
7
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
175
57
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1401
947
OptionVotes
YES
NO
163
83
OptionProbability
Text involves time period between 1930 and the present.
Text involves the future.
Text is somehow self-referential.
The plaintext is an original message, not a quotation.
The plaintext involves Jim Sanborn personally in some way.
The plaintext involves CIA in some way.
The plaintext involves the intelligence community at large.
Text is about exploration/discovery.
Text involves artefacts, art works and or treasure.
50
50
50
50
46
46
46
46
46
OptionProbability
NO
YES
121
100





