
OptionProbability
Above 1 week
Above 2 weeks (Mar 14)
Above 3 weeks (Mar 21)
Above 4 weeks (Mar 28)
Above 6 weeks (Apr 11)
Above 9 weeks (May 2)
Above 13 weeks (May 30)
Above 20 weeks (Jul 18)
Above 35 weeks (Oct 31)
Above 55 weeks (Mar 20, 2027)
Above 80 weeks (Sep 11, 2027)
Above 110 weeks (Apr 8, 2028)
100
100
100
98
93
77
64
45
36
29
17
15
OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
Causes Tina Peters' early release
new blockade of a country
pass 500 or more executive orders
put his name on a ship in the navy
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
resume buying oil from Russia
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Stays alive
Revoke ten or more citizenships
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
ten or more protestors killed during term
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Dep
have a journalist arrested
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Raise the retirement age for social security
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
Enact price controls on groceries
Says 6 7 (or variant)
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Add a citizenship question to the census
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Pardon himself
Get rid of Noaa.
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Causes derek chauvin's early release
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
stops all sanctions on Russia
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Attack a NATO ally.
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
Annex any part of Mexico
Prosecute someone for flag burning
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Announce he’s running for a third term
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
take control of a part of greenland
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
ban trans people from holding federal offices
make statements that are negative about labubu
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
fully nationalize an airline
Salute Putin
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
stop California from hosting the Olympics
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Pardon p diddy
Implement a federal age of consent
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Implement a federal abortion ban
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
Call for the end of the Senate
all time high unemployment reached
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
Call for the end of interracial marriage
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
bans anime
bans 6 7
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
100
100
100
100
100
95
88
88
87
84
83
76
76
75
71
71
71
70
70
69
69
68
66
65
63
62
62
60
57
56
55
55
52
52
50
49
47
46
45
44
44
44
41
40
38
37
36
36
36
35
34
34
34
33
33
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
5814
4759
OptionProbability
If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term
If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term
If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term
If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term
If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life
If Biden/dems wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term
If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life
If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029
If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term
Biden will win AND Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life
If Biden/dems wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term
If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will go to prison before the end of his life
If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life
If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term
If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life
If Joe Biden Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Joe Biden's term
If Biden/Dems wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term
If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term
If Biden wins, Biden will die before the end of his term
If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025
If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives
If Biden wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term
If Dems/Biden wins, Trump will concede within 1 month
If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term
If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will concede within 1 week
If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will die before the end of their term
If Dems/Biden wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)
If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term
If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.
If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Israel/Palestine (troops on ground / in air)
If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland
If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term
If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine (troops on ground / in air) during his time in office
If Trump wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term
If Dems/Biden wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term
If Trump wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term
100
100
100
100
96
95
79
75
63
59
55
48
44
44
44
43
40
34
33
31
31
30
29
27
27
26
26
22
21
20
20
19
18
17
15
11
6
1
0
OptionProbability
Raytheon / RTX
OAN
Boeing
Lockheed Martin
Northrop Grumman
General Dynamics
Palantir
ExxonMobil
Chevron
Newsmax
SpaceX
CNN
TikTok
The Washington Post
25
23
22
20
19
19
17
16
14
12
10
10
8
6
OptionProbability
John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump
John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
James Comey – Former FBI Director
James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN
John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI
Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama
Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama
Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden
Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm
Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein
Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller
Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General
Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump
Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office
Joe Biden – President of the United States
Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows
Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI
Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London
Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions
Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump
Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm
Curtis Heide – FBI Agent
Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration
Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama
Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump
Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command
Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump
Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection
Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare
Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General
Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development
Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division
Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm
Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"
Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump
Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS
Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump
100
100
100
79
76
68
68
68
66
66
66
57
56
56
51
49
48
47
46
42
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
37
37
36
35
35
34
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
27
27
24
OptionProbability
The Washington Post
Neil Gaiman
Sam Bankman-Fried
CBS News
Gavin Newsom
CNN
Drake
Ezra Klein
John Fetterman
MrBeast
Sam Altman
Disney
Manifold
MSNOW (formerly MSNBC)
The Papacy
Taylor Lorenz
Bluesky
Contrapoints (Natalie Wynn)
Jon Stewart
Taylor Swift
78
65
58
50
47
46
45
45
42
41
41
40
32
27
19
17
12
12
9
9
OptionProbability
Epoch Times
NPR
Wired
Time
TMZ
Los Angeles Times
New York Post
USA Today
The Onion
Times of India
Gateway Pundit
Babylon Bee
Daily Wire
Newsmax
Breitbart
Al Jazeera
Associated Press (AP)
The Information
The Base Rate Times
Fox News
Wall Street Journal
CNN
BBC
NPR
New York Times
92
79
72
72
72
69
66
66
56
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
45
41
34
34
34
20
18
9
OptionProbability
Anthem by Ayn Rand
Book of Mormon
Hamilton's Report on Manufactures
Carl's The Unprotected Class
Tom Woods's How the Catholic Church Built Western Civilization
Buddhism A Complete Introduction
Uncle Tom's Cabin
CNN War in the Gulf
Understanding Iran by Polk
Benedict's The Chrysanthemum and the Sword
Iliad of Homer
Sunzi
Hesiod's Works and Days
China in World History by Ropp
Odyssey of Homer
Mexifornia by Victor Davis Hanson
Origins of Judaism by Adler
China's Destiny by Chiang
The Myth of Hiawatha by Henry Schoolcraft
38
36
24
24
17
17
17
17
17
17
15
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
10
OptionProbability
NO
YES
229
189
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1344
861
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1112
813


