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US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility

Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)

UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution

Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem

Iranian General killed inside Iran

Donald Trump declares victory

Iranian government official declares victory

China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal

US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days

Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours

War Ends in June

War ends in 2025

500+ Iranian civilians killed

US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year

Fordow facility successfully bombed

Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal

Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%

Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"

Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed

There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.

The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict

Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)

A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)

Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace

Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA

Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours

Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%

Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason

>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict

At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities

A second cease-fire is announced

USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution

Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz

>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict

Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict

Israel government dissolves

USA conducts a second bombing in Iran

A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed

Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours

Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil

Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)

Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

Iran launches a cruise missile

Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA

Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.

Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally

Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council

War ends in July

Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel

Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)

Iran tests a nuclear weapon

A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank

State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran

Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed

Iranian government dissolves

UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes

Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day

Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar

Saudi Arabia attacks Iran

WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)

Qatar attacks Iran

≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict

Iran regime change

Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)

Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi

There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.

Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025

Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026

Total casualties exceed 10,000

US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)

Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran

Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)

Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive

A nuclear weapon is used offensively.

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

pass 500 or more executive orders

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

Stays alive

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

Revoke ten or more citizenships

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Pardon himself

File lawsuit against a congressperson

have a journalist arrested

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

new blockade of a country

Prosecute someone for flag burning

Pardon a convicted pedophile

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

resume buying oil from Russia

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

call someone retarded through text or speech

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

Dep

Nominate a family member to high office

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

put his name on a ship in the navy

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Announce he’s running for a third term

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

ten or more protestors killed during term

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

Causes Tina Peters' early release

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Pardon p diddy

Add a citizenship question to the census

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

take state ownership in an airline

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

add a new federal holiday in his honor

take control of a part of ukraine

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

Replace his Vice President

stops all sanctions on Russia

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

force a former president to testify before Congress

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

expand the borders of the usa

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

repeal Obamacare

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

actually disinter bodies from another country

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

orders arrests of any Biden family member

repeal an amendment

Enact price controls on groceries

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

host putin at mar a lago

make statements that are negative about labubu

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

take control of a part of greenland

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

declares a white history month

ends black history month

all time high unemployment reached

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Implement a federal age of consent

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

stop California from hosting the Olympics

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

Causes derek chauvin's early release

fully nationalize an airline

Says 6 7 (or variant)

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

pardon derek chauvin

Raise the retirement age for social security

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

Salute Putin

Withdraw from NATO

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Call for the end of child marriage

Call for the end of gay marriage

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

Annex any part of Mexico

change the borders of a state

add a new state

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

Call for the end of the House of Reps

Call for the end of the Senate

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

fauci in jail at least one week

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

ban trans people from holding federal offices

Implement a federal abortion ban

bans anime

Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

Call for the end of interracial marriage

Wearing a white dress after labor day

bans 6 7

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/dems wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life

If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029

If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term

Biden will win AND Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025

If Biden/dems wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives

If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Joe Biden Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Joe Biden's term

If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/Dems wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.

If Biden wins, Biden will die before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life

If Biden wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Dems/Biden wins, Trump will concede within 1 month

If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will concede within 1 week

If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will die before the end of their term

If Dems/Biden wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Israel/Palestine (troops on ground / in air)

If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland

If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine (troops on ground / in air) during his time in office

If Trump wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Dems/Biden wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term

Lockheed Martin

Northrop Grumman

General Dynamics

OAN

Boeing

TikTok

Raytheon / RTX

Palantir

SpaceX

ExxonMobil

Newsmax

CNN

Reuters

The Washington Post

NBC

Associated Press

NPR

MSNBC

The Wall Street Journal

CNN

Axios

Wired

Environmental Defense Fund

The Trump Organization

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Wikimedia Foundation

The New York Times

Sierra Club

Greenpeace

Black Lives Matter

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Cochrane Reviews

BBC

Twitter/X

The Guardian

Snopes

Sky News International

Kiyv Independent

Los Angeles Times

CNN

Joe Rogan podcast

The Washington Post

Neil Gaiman

Sam Bankman-Fried

CBS News

Gavin Newsom

CNN

Drake

Ezra Klein

John Fetterman

MrBeast

Sam Altman

Disney

Manifold

MSNOW (formerly MSNBC)

The Papacy

Taylor Lorenz

Bluesky

Contrapoints (Natalie Wynn)

Jon Stewart

Epoch Times

NPR

Wired

Time

TMZ

Los Angeles Times

New York Post

USA Today

The Onion

Times of India

Gateway Pundit

Babylon Bee

Daily Wire

Newsmax

Breitbart

Al Jazeera

Associated Press (AP)

The Information

The Base Rate Times

Fox News

Wall Street Journal

CNN

BBC

NPR

NO

YES

NO