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Prediction markets for Gemini
OptionProbability
62
32
26
25
23
14
8
5
4
1
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1924
647
OptionProbability
15
14
14
13
8
7
7
7
7
7
1
1
Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?
Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3.91%chance
231621
OptionVotes
1890
882
OptionVotes
1998
906
Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?
Mar 27, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.29%chance
20720
OptionVotes
142
71
Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.49%chance
4460
OptionVotes
1460
940
Will "Gemini 3 is Evaluation-Paranoid and Contaminated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 21, 6:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.33%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Will "Gemini's Hypothetical Present" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 1, 9:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.33%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Will I be able to connect my Quickbooks online data to ChatGPT, Gemini, or Claude before 2027?
Jan 15, 2:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.96%chance
440
OptionVotes
115
87
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
OptionVotes
105
95
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