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Prediction markets for Gemini
Gemini 3.0 scores 1500+ on Chatbot Arena in 2025? (Without Style Control)
Nov 15, 4:53 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM
6.23%chance
7326147
OptionVotes
3881
258
Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?
Oct 9, 5:57 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM
77.4%chance
11217909
OptionVotes
1851
540
OptionVotes
1764
567
OptionVotes
2263
442
Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2025?
Jan 15, 3:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4.09%chance
324158
OptionVotes
3644
746
Google Partnership with Apple for Gemini integration into iPhone by EOY?
Aug 9, 3:19 PMDec 31, 3:45 PM
5.98%chance
163651
OptionVotes
3964
252
Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?
Nov 24, 7:29 PMDec 31, 7:28 PM
77.63%chance
192715
OptionVotes
1863
537
Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?
Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3.91%chance
231621
OptionVotes
1890
882
Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?
Oct 14, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
76.5%chance
211608
OptionVotes
1388
983
Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.49%chance
4460
OptionVotes
1460
940
Will "Gemini 3 is Evaluation-Paranoid and Contaminated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 21, 6:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.33%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
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