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Prediction markets for Gemini
Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?
Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
2.99%chance
283171
OptionVotes
2440
863
Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026
Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM
7.23%chance
292191
OptionVotes
358
28
OptionProbability
471
45
OptionProbability
98
1
0
0
0
0
Will "Saving Gemini: The 9-Min Road to Recovery" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 3, 1:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.46%chance
8750
OptionVotes
1465
940
Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.49%chance
4460
OptionVotes
1460
940
Will the next major AI model (GPT-5, Gemini 2.0, etc.) be able to correctly predict this market's resolution?
Dec 14, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
65.91%chance
8249
OptionVotes
163
89
Will free Gemini app users get access to Gemini 4 Argon by November 15, 2026?
Oct 15, 9:55 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM
5.24%chance
5170
OptionVotes
268
84
Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2027?
Jan 18, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.7%chance
1082
OptionVotes
232
180
Will "Gemini 3 is Evaluation-Paranoid and Contaminated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 21, 6:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.33%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Will "Gemini's Hypothetical Present" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 1, 9:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.33%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
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