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Prediction markets for Gemini
OptionProbability
84
77
57
25
12
2
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1689
706
OptionProbability
29
28
18
11
6
3
2
2
1
1
Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?
Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3.91%chance
231621
OptionVotes
1890
882
OptionVotes
1998
906
By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
Feb 2, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6469
OptionProbability
41
21
15
11
8
5
Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.49%chance
4460
OptionVotes
1460
940
Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026
Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM
25%chance
15412
OptionVotes
173
58
Will "Gemini 3 is Evaluation-Paranoid and Contaminated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 21, 6:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.33%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Will "Gemini's Hypothetical Present" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 1, 9:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.33%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
OptionVotes
105
95
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