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Hezbollah News

    Prediction markets for Hezbollah

    Iran vs US (props)

    Mar 7, 10:55 AMMar 7, 10:55 AM
    532137720

    OptionProbability

    US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026

    US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

    Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

    Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

    Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

    At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

    US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

    Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

    US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

    At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

    Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).

    Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

    Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

    Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

    Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

    FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

    Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

    US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

    Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

    Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

    Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

    US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

    A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

    Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

    US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

    US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

    Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

    Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

    Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

    Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

    US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

    US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

    US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

    US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

    The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

    The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

    Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

    US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    81

    17

    16

    15

    14

    14

    14

    12

    12

    10

    8

    8

    8

    6

    5

    3

    2

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Where will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]

    Jan 6, 11:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    26955393

    OptionProbability

    Iran

    Venezuela II (post Jan 5th)

    Iraq

    Syria

    Nigeria

    Somalia

    International waters

    Somalia II (post Jan 11th)

    Syria II (post Jan 12th)

    Syria III (post Jan 18th)

    Houthi controlled Yemen

    Yemen

    Hezbollah in the Americas

    Yo mama's titties

    A cyclone, hurricane or a tornado

    Cuba

    Lebanon

    Palestinian Territories

    U.S. (False Flag operation)

    Colombia

    Haiti

    Low earth orbit

    Mexico

    Russia and/or Ukraine

    Outer space (strikes a satellite, explodes a nuke, etc)

    Cambodia

    Greenland

    Panama

    Zapatista territories

    Itself (civil war)

    Russia

    Brazil

    Israel

    Ukraine

    China

    Bahamas

    Greece

    Spain

    Canada

    Iceland

    Mars

    Rojava / SDF-controlled Syria

    No attacks in 2026 (post Jan 5th)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    91

    52

    46

    45

    35

    23

    15

    14

    13

    11

    10

    10

    9

    8

    8

    8

    7

    6

    6

    5

    5

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    0

    0

    Will Iran strike US soil this year?

    Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM
    7.29%chance
    10515625

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3566

    280

    Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

    May 8, 8:22 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
    67%chance
    468815

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    142

    70

    Which countries will send troops to help Iran within the next 24 months?

    Apr 5, 5:14 AMApr 12, 5:12 AM
    196097

    OptionProbability

    Houthis

    Hezbollah

    Yemen

    Russia

    Lebanon

    Pakistan

    Azerbaijan

    China

    North Korea

    India

    52

    52

    44

    35

    34

    17

    15

    14

    9

    8

    Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026?

    Sep 5, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    4.85%chance
    195793

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4432

    226

    Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026?

    Feb 28, 7:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    475494

    OptionProbability

    Military Installation or Static Deployment

    Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air)

    Diplomatic Mission

    Homeland / Sovereign Territory

    No Direct Attack in 2026

    100

    100

    44

    13

    0

    How long until Majid Mousavi is no longer Aerospace Chief of the IRGC?

    Jun 15, 10:13 PMJan 3, 10:57 PM
    81902

    OptionProbability

    Before 2028

    Before 2027

    Before August 2025

    Before September 2025

    Before 2026

    54

    37

    0

    0

    0

    Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by end of 2026

    May 25, 1:53 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
    7%chance
    181029

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    372

    36

    US vs. IRAN free mana: What Will Happen Before the End Of 2026? [ADD OPTIONS]

    Jul 28, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    16363

    OptionProbability

    US and Iran resume attacks on each other (Iran's proxys - hezbollah, etc. - count)

    US and Iran sign another formal temporary ceasefire

    Shadow-Peace (neither side wants to start a war or sign a treaty that looks like a political defeat)

    81

    59

    56

    Thunderdome: Hassan Nasrallah vs Bibi Netanyahu

    Nov 9, 1:29 AMDec 1, 4:00 AM
    890

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