Ministry of Defense News
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Prediction markets for Ministry of Defense
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.63%chance
3315534
OptionVotes
15062
6649
Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity by the end of 2050?
May 2, 2:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1.13%chance
254589
OptionVotes
2353
54
China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026
Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.12%chance
353812
OptionVotes
3915
255
OptionVotes
585
41
OptionVotes
1336
748
Will China officially acknowledge its new sixth-gen tailless stealth fighter prototypes (J-36 / J-50) before 2027
Mar 7, 1:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.97%chance
7240
OptionVotes
422
165
Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
Mar 29, 1:43 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
33.23%chance
10162
OptionVotes
142
71
Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?
Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM
65.93%chance
12152
OptionVotes
139
72
Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?
Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.65%chance
7135
OptionVotes
159
63
When violence between Russia and Ukraine formally ends, will Russia attack a non OTAN/NATO neighbour within 2 years?
Feb 22, 12:05 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
43.42%chance
590
OptionVotes
1018
984
Will a spokesperson for the PRC Ministry of National Defense confirm that Dong Jun is under investigation by this date?
Dec 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
215
OptionProbability
50
50
50
28
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