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Prediction markets for Outperform
OptionVotes
20774
3378
OptionVotes
39592
2531
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM
30%chance
8713053
OptionVotes
1722
1174
Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over three years from 2023?
Oct 15, 12:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
1.53%chance
418751
OptionVotes
7453
103
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
Nov 16, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.35%chance
734992
OptionVotes
1182
968
OptionVotes
2637
379
Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?
Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33%chance
134578
OptionVotes
1425
702
Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.81%chance
114493
OptionVotes
10081
9577
Will "large reasoning models" significantly outperform traditional LLMs in creative writing by 2026?
Jan 11, 7:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
40.28%chance
141633
OptionVotes
1218
821
AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions
May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.82%chance
221268
OptionVotes
1093
945
EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029
Mar 10, 2:16 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM
60.62%chance
6446
OptionVotes
1241
806
If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?
Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
69.65%chance
13186
OptionVotes
1037
977
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