BNP Paribas Scraps 2025 ECB Rate-Cut Call as Banks Delay Easing Outlook

Citigroup has pushed back its projections for European Central Bank easing, saying it now expects quarter-point policy-rate reductions in September and December 2025 instead of the July and September cuts it previously pencilled in. The bank cites the Governing Council’s recent guidance that it intends to keep borrowing costs unchanged through the summer. Market expectations for further stimulus have continued to narrow. On 25 July, Commerzbank and Royal Bank of Canada both dropped calls for a final ECB cut altogether, and BNP Paribas said it no longer anticipates any reduction in 2025 after earlier forecasting one in September. The revisions underscore a broader reassessment among analysts over how quickly the central bank can resume loosening policy amid sticky inflation.