Bank of America said in a research note on Monday that it no longer expects the United States to fall into recession this year and projects the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark rate unchanged through the end of 2025. The bank cited solid consumer demand and sticky goods inflation for its outlook. It pointed to a 0.5% monthly gain in the June retail-sales control group and a 0.6% rise in food-service receipts as evidence that spending momentum remains intact. BofA added that cutting rates prematurely could unanchor inflation expectations, weaken the dollar and steepen the yield curve. The call contrasts with market pricing: wagering platform Polymarket still assigns an 83–84% probability to at least one Fed rate cut this year. BofA said heightened political scrutiny of Chair Jerome Powell’s policy choices raises the hurdle for any move to ease before inflation shows clearer progress toward the central bank’s 2% goal.