The European Central Bank published a blog post on 8 July in which staff economists Claudia Marchini and Alexander Popov conclude that the European Union has been channeling an increasing share of its trade toward autocratic and dictatorial regimes since 1999, contradicting the bloc’s stated commitment to values-based commerce. The analysis finds that the pattern persists even when China is excluded and that democratic backsliding among existing partners has compounded the shift. The trend paused only after the EU imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Marchini and Popov argue that ‘trading with dictators’ generates profits for governments that often pursue expansionary and militaristic agendas, creating what they describe as a potential existential threat to the Union. They add that the EU’s push to decarbonise is likely to deepen the dilemma because many critical rare-earth minerals essential for low-carbon technologies are sourced from non-democratic states.