UBS Sees 25-bp ECB Cut in July Pending Trade-Talk Outcome

UBS Global Research said it expects the European Central Bank to lower its key policy rates by 25 basis points at the July 2025 meeting. The firm cited soft economic momentum in the euro area as the main driver for the anticipated move. UBS added that it would drop the forecast if negotiations currently under way between Washington and Brussels produce a “benign” outcome. A positive result in the US-EU trade talks would, in the bank’s view, reduce the need for additional monetary support from the ECB.