The European Central Bank is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged at its July policy meeting, according to officials familiar with the Governing Council’s thinking. Policymakers see little immediate benefit in cutting rates while they assess the damage from President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, including the 145% levy on Chinese goods that took effect in April. While the trade measures have begun to crimp euro-area export demand and cloud the growth outlook, ECB officials believe financial conditions remain sufficiently supportive and prefer to preserve their limited rate ammunition in case the downturn deepens, people with knowledge of the discussions said. Market pricing still assigns a chance of easing later in the year if data deteriorate. The stance contrasts with mounting pressure on other central banks to act as global industry and investment adjust to the escalating U.S. trade confrontation. Governing Council members will update forecasts at the September meeting, which several officials have signaled as the earliest juncture for possible policy action should the external shock intensify.
"ECB Likely to Hold Off on Interest Rate Cut Despite Economic Threat from Trump's Tariffs"
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