The United States, under President Donald Trump, has imposed tariffs targeting buyers of Russian Urals crude oil, with India currently in focus and China expected to be next. This move is causing shifts in the global oil market, as prompt supplies of Russia’s flagship Urals crude are increasingly offered to Chinese buyers. Indian state refiners, including Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), are exploring alternatives to Russian oil amid concerns over prices and sanctions. Recent Indian oil tenders indicate a shift away from Russian barrels toward U.S. Mars Sour, Brazilian, Libyan, and African crude, despite a price premium of approximately $1.50 per barrel. Analysts warn that Trump’s tariff ultimatum carries economic and political risks, including the potential for a global oil shock that could impact U.S. consumers before affecting Russia. Market reactions suggest some skepticism about the immediate impact of these tariffs.