Russia’s Gas Output Falls to 334.8 bcm in H1 2025; July Exports to Europe Rise 37% to 51.5 mcm/day

Russia's natural gas output declined by 3.2% in the first half of 2025, falling to 334.8 billion cubic meters (bcm). This decrease occurred despite increased exports to China and rising domestic demand, as these factors failed to compensate for the loss of gas flows to Europe via Ukraine. The cessation of Ukraine transit routes and limited access to the European Union markets have contributed to this contraction. In July 2025, Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe increased by 37% month-over-month, reaching 51.5 million cubic meters per day (mcm/day), following the resumption of TurkStream flows after maintenance. However, first-half exports to Europe remain nearly 50% lower year-over-year, impacted by the end of Ukraine transit and sanctions on liquefied natural gas (LNG). Without new infrastructure developments, the Russian gas sector is expected to face continued contraction.