Recent polling data indicate a notable shift in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary landscape, with California Governor Gavin Newsom gaining momentum over former Vice President Kamala Harris. Multiple polls conducted in August 2025 show Newsom's support rising to 13% in national Democratic primary polls, a 3-point increase from previous months, while Harris maintains a steady 26% in some national surveys but trails Newsom in California-specific polls. In California, Newsom leads Harris by six points, holding 25% support compared to Harris's 19%, according to Politico and UC Berkeley Citrin Center data. Newsom's odds of securing the Democratic nomination have surged to 30% on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, marking a new high. Other Democratic contenders include Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Cory Booker, with Buttigieg polling at 11% nationally and 13% in California. In the 2028 general election matchups, Buttigieg leads Republican JD Vance with 41% to 37%, while Newsom also holds a narrow lead over Vance at 39% to 37% in Southern California polls. Additionally, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson has seen a rise in Democratic primary odds, now three times more likely than Tim Walz according to Polymarket. Meanwhile, in California's gubernatorial race, former Representative Katie Porter leads with 21%, ahead of Republican Chad Bianco at 15% and Steve Hilton at 12%. Newsom's approval rating in San Diego County stands at 54%, with 65% support in the local Democratic primary. These trends suggest increasing enthusiasm for Newsom among California Democrats as the 2028 presidential race begins to take shape.
🔵 New - 2028 primary poll (San Diego) 🔵 Newsom 65% 🔵 Other 31% Survey USA #A - 8/20
San Diego County Poll: 49% Support Overriding Independent Commission in Special Election, 30% Oppose. (60-30% among certain/probable voters) Gov. Newsom 🟢 Approve: 54% (+13) 🟤 Disapprove: 41% —— 2028 Dem Primary (San Diego only) Gavin Newsom: 65% Other Dem/not sure: 31% —— https://t.co/bRadE4L2kj
Former Rep. Katie Porter leads among possible candidates for governor of California in the latest poll from Politico-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab released on Thursday. https://t.co/wEQiFQg4CB