California Governor Gavin Newsom has emerged as the leading contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to multiple recent polls and prediction markets. Echelon Insights polling from August 18, 2025, shows Newsom at 13%, marking a 3-point increase from the previous month, while Kamala Harris holds 26% nationally but trails Newsom in California-specific polls. A Politico/Possibility Lab poll and other surveys indicate Newsom leading California Democrats with 25%, compared to Harris at 19%. Newsom's favorability among California Democratic voters has surged to 75%, up 40 points, signaling strong home-state support. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have raised Newsom's odds of securing the Democratic nomination to around 27-30%, surpassing other candidates like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg. Newsom has also informally launched his 2028 presidential campaign on social media platform X. Despite his rising popularity, some analysts have expressed skepticism about his national appeal, citing concerns about replicating California's political model on a broader scale. Meanwhile, other Democratic candidates including Buttigieg, AOC, Booker, and Shapiro maintain lower but steady support in national polls. On the Republican side, JD Vance leads presidential election prediction markets with approximately 29% odds.