California Gov. Gavin Newsom has opened an early lead in the 2028 Democratic presidential race among voters in his home state, according to a USA Today/Politico–Citrin Center poll conducted July 28–Aug 12. The survey of registered Democrats places Newsom at 25 percent, six points ahead of former vice president and 2024 nominee Kamala Harris. A separate poll released the same week shows a similar six-point edge. The findings cap a surge in enthusiasm for the governor. Seventy-five percent of California Democrats now say they want Newsom to seek the presidency, up 40 points from 2023, while his statewide job-approval rating has improved to 51 percent approve and 43 percent disapprove from a break-even reading in May. Betting markets are echoing the shift. On Polymarket, Newsom’s probability of securing the 2028 Democratic nomination has climbed to roughly 30 percent—more than twice that of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and well ahead of Harris—after rising eight percentage points in the past week. Newsom’s heightened profile follows his call for California to adopt a one-time partisan redistricting plan to counter Republican map-drawing in Texas. A UC Berkeley/IGS poll shows 63 percent of Democrats oppose gerrymandering in principle, yet the party is divided over strategy: 38 percent favor keeping the state’s independent process while 35 percent back Newsom’s proposed counter-maps.
Harvard/Harris poll - Trump Approval Approve: 47% (=) Disapprove: 49% (=) —— Is Trump doing better or worse job than Biden? Better: 54% (+3) Worse: 46% (-3) —— Net Favs • Vance: -2 • Newsom: -5 • AOC: -7 —— (shift vs July) | 8/20-21 | 2,025 RV https://t.co/y27S9QUVWW https://t.co/YchEdgEjVV
Trump Approval is at 50% today, up a point from last week: https://t.co/K0PyR8w0EM #TRUMPAPPROVAL https://t.co/h2hdz37Dws
Ironclad rule has been that any Dem that comes under fire from Trump gets a bump with prospective Dem primary voters. Likely a boon to Moore who has been trying to get attention in wake of Newsom’s revived odds. https://t.co/byUdWDp5jl