California Gov. Gavin Newsom is emerging as the early favorite for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in his home state, according to a Politico-Citrin Center survey that gives him 25% support among California Democrats, six points ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris. Separate trend data cited by polling analyst Harry Enten show 75% of California Democratic voters now want Newsom to run, up 40 points since 2023. The uptick is reflected in betting markets: on Polymarket, Newsom’s chances of securing the Democratic nomination have risen to roughly 27%, more than double the implied probability for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and ahead of other potential contenders including Pete Buttigieg and Harris. Newsom’s standing is intertwined with a high-profile effort to redraw California’s congressional boundaries in response to Republican gerrymandering in Texas. A national Politico poll finds a majority of Democratic voters support California adopting partisan maps as a countermeasure, despite long-standing party opposition to gerrymandering. Inside the state, views are mixed: a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey reports 63% of Californians say gerrymandering is "never acceptable," yet when asked about how to respond if Texas changes its maps, 38% favor keeping California’s independent process while 35% endorse a retaliatory redraw. A separate August poll that will inform a November ballot initiative shows 48% of all California voters—rising to 55% among likely voters—support a temporary partisan redistricting plan, with 32% opposed. Nationally, however, Newsom’s profile remains limited; a Harvard-Harris survey pegs his favorability at 29%, well below former President Donald Trump’s 46%, underscoring the challenge Newsom would face converting home-state enthusiasm into broader appeal.