California Governor Gavin Newsom has intensified a combative online strategy that mirrors former President Donald Trump’s all-caps, insult-laden style. In recent posts he ridiculed Trump’s cryptic “Bela” message on Truth Social, mocked the president’s stumble while boarding Air Force One and labelled Vice-President J.D. Vance “Just Dance Vance.” The barrage has drawn national attention and, according to Newsom’s office, generated roughly one billion social-media impressions since the start of August. The heightened visibility coincides with a measurable rise in Newsom’s standing for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. An Echelon Insights survey of registered voters conducted 14-18 August puts Newsom at 13 percent—up from 4 percent in April—trailing only Vice President Kamala Harris, who leads with 26 percent, and edging Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg on 11 percent. Among Black Democratic voters, however, Harris maintains a wide lead of 35 percent to Newsom’s 8 percent. Betting markets are echoing the shift. Kalshi now assigns a 20 percent probability that Newsom will secure the Democratic nomination, the highest level recorded, while Polymarket reported a two-point jump in his odds on 18 August. Whether the viral tactics translate into broader electoral support remains uncertain. Yet the polling gains and market moves suggest that party activists, donors and political gamblers are beginning to treat the California governor as a serious contender more than three years before the first primary votes are cast.
Republican Presidential Polling: Vance: 43% RFK: 9% DeSantis: 9% Rubio: 6% Haley: 4% Sanders: 2% Ramaswamy: 2% Cruz: 2% Gabbard: 2% Echelon / Aug 18, 2025
Democratic Presidential Polling: Harris: 26% Newsom: 13% Buttigieg: 11% AOC: 6% Booker: 5% Crockett: 3% Pritzker: 3% Whitmer: 3% Shapiro: 3% Cuban: 2% Beshear: 2% Walz: 2% Echelon / Aug 18, 2025
🔵 New - 2028 Primary poll 🔵 Harris 26% 🔵 Newsom 13% (+3) 🔵 Buttigieg 11% 🔵 AOC 6% 🔵 Booker 5% (-2) 🔵 Crockett 3% (+2) 🔵 Pritzker 3% (+1) 🔵 Shapiro 3% (-1) 🔵 Whitmer 3% 🔵 Cuban 2% (-1) 🔵 Beshear 2% Echelon #B - RV - 8/18