Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s 29–30 July policy meeting, published on 20 August, show “almost all” officials judged it appropriate to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, extending a five-meeting hold. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller dissented, calling for a quarter-point cut—the first instance since 1993 of more than one Fed governor opposing a rate decision. Most participants said upside inflation risks outweighed concerns about employment, pointing to President Donald Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods and other levies as potential catalysts for renewed price pressure. Several noted the current policy rate may not be far above its neutral level, but the majority viewed the stance as sufficiently restrictive and saw no need to adjust balance-sheet runoff plans. Policymakers acknowledged that economic activity “moderated” in the first half of 2025 and many expect growth to stay subdued later in the year amid softer hiring and slowing income gains. Nonetheless, they agreed that uncertainty around the outlook remains elevated, with some warning that a premature policy pivot could complicate efforts to return inflation sustainably to target. The record offered little explicit guidance on the 17–18 September meeting. Interest-rate futures now imply divided expectations, with analysts saying an immediate cut would likely require further evidence of labour-market weakness or a sharper easing in price pressures.