Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver what is expected to be his final keynote at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 22. The speech, scheduled for 10 a.m. local time, takes place as the three-day gathering opens under the theme “Labor Markets in Transition.” Financial markets are bracing for the remarks: futures imply an 80-to-85% probability the Fed will lower interest rates at its Sept. meeting, yet several strategists expect Powell to avoid firm commitments and keep policy options open. The dollar, Treasury yields and gold—last quoted near $3,330 an ounce—have all been volatile ahead of the event. Reuters and other outlets report that Powell will also unveil an overhaul of the Fed’s monetary-policy framework. Draft language under discussion would abandon the 2020 experiment with ‘average inflation targeting’ and restore a simpler 2% inflation goal, a change that could shape policy well beyond Powell’s term, which ends next May. The address comes against a mixed economic backdrop. PCE inflation has climbed to 2.6% as the new 145% tariff on Chinese goods feeds through to prices, while July payroll growth slowed to just 73,000 and unemployment edged up to 4.3%. At its last meeting the FOMC left the target rate at 4.25%–4.50%, with Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller casting a rare dual dissent in favor of a 25-basis-point cut. Powell is under pressure from investors seeking clarity, from colleagues debating the pace of easing and from critics questioning Fed independence. His Jackson Hole remarks will therefore serve both as a signal for near-term policy and as a marker of his legacy after nearly eight years at the central bank’s helm.
Jackson Hole Monetary Symposium: sometimes at Jackson Hole what is not on the docket but permeates the conference, is far more interesting. And the topic in the air is central bank independence and Powells legacy as he gets ready to make his final Jackson Hole speech. Powell is https://t.co/k3efPTbezx
Two scenarios here: #1 market is selling off, anticipating Powell won’t commit to a Sept rate cut on Friday. #2 Friday will be a huge short squeeze as all the selling is coming from hedges on low volume this week.
EVERY AUGUST, YIELDS TAKE THE SAME RIDE INTO JACKSON HOLE Beyond the mountain views, this symposium is a critical inflection point for monetary policy. Historically, yields tend to dip into the event, only to rebound after. This week, markets are bracing again. https://t.co/nFsqBXMiiz