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Prediction markets for Earth
By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?
May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
74%chance
18354039
OptionVotes
1996
1193
If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?
Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.7%chance
14336408
OptionVotes
5405
1263
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
71.05%chance
17725328
OptionVotes
12006
9046
Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?
Sep 8, 12:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
1%chance
6424362
OptionVotes
9954
101
Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade
Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.62%chance
13623838
OptionVotes
1928
769
Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?
Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
32%chance
8721359
OptionVotes
1417
1073
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
38.06%chance
2713596
OptionVotes
12765
7830
Will over 1000 people live permanently outside Earth's atmosphere by 2050?
Aug 17, 12:33 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
38.55%chance
878670
OptionVotes
1233
865
Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?
Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
7.8%chance
345924
OptionVotes
2398
778
OptionVotes
1100
843
OptionVotes
1576
1428
Will at least one crewed Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2028/2029 launch window?
Sep 8, 12:29 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM
4.27%chance
94026
OptionVotes
4735
211
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