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Prediction markets for Oscar
OptionProbability
99
90
89
82
81
78
75
70
55
40
40
37
32
28
25
24
18
17
17
11
10
1
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
Feb 9, 3:48 PMDec 31, 10:01 PM
16.8%chance
10518606
OptionVotes
1958
957
Will "Project Hail Mary" receive more Oscar nominations than "Dune: Part Three"?
Apr 8, 3:23 PMJan 8, 4:20 PM
22.09%chance
322895
OptionVotes
1878
532
Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)
Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM
54.73%chance
301932
OptionVotes
2090
1821
OptionVotes
1221
741
Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034
Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
14.85%chance
81474
OptionVotes
2394
418
Oscars 2027: Will an actor or actress receive 2+ nominations in the same category?
May 18, 5:28 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
18.99%chance
101436
OptionVotes
2065
484
Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)
Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM
28.63%chance
251287
OptionVotes
1686
440
OptionVotes
1623
836
By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction
Mar 31, 12:22 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM
14.2%chance
20602
OptionVotes
1556
845
Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?
Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.43%chance
16281
OptionVotes
1227
920
OptionVotes
1120
893
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