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Prediction markets for Pokémon
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?
Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
2333334
OptionProbability
65
56
39
15
5
0
Will there be 1500 or more official Pokemon creatures on January 1st 2030?
Nov 28, 4:57 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
4.72%chance
283694
OptionVotes
4428
513
Will there be 1300 or more official Pokemon creatures on January 1st 2030?
Nov 28, 2:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
34.81%chance
422786
OptionVotes
3075
872
Will The Pokémon Company pursue legal action against DHS/the US govt for the DHS Pokemon video before Dec 2027?
Sep 26, 3:50 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM
10.79%chance
52234
OptionVotes
2703
107
Will there be more One Piece chapters than the number of Pokemon released when the manga ends?
Jan 18, 4:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
53.86%chance
27964
OptionVotes
1099
905
Will there be an official Pokemon related emoji approved by Unicode before the end of 2035?
Mar 9, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
18.49%chance
11527
OptionVotes
1073
954
Will I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?
May 12, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.77%chance
5432
OptionVotes
1432
698
Will "A Year Late, Claude Finally Beats Pokémon " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 17, 4:06 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.54%chance
3280
OptionVotes
1209
970
Will there be a Pokemon 2D Platformer game by Jan 1st 2029?
Dec 6, 4:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
25.21%chance
9186
OptionVotes
263
114
Will "So how well is Claude playing Pokémon?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 22, 11:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.05%chance
2160
OptionVotes
1160
976
Will there be a second Bug / Ghost type pokemon released by the end of 2029?
Oct 10, 11:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.77%chance
252
OptionVotes
150
67
Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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