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Prediction markets for Twitter
OptionProbability
95
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?
Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.08%chance
22625411
OptionVotes
3058
2092
By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?
Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2.89%chance
618678
OptionVotes
4007
1484
OptionVotes
2346
1313
OptionVotes
1754
729
Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?
Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
18%chance
331723
OptionVotes
999
822
Conditional on the Tik-tok bill being passed, will the US government force a change in Twitter's ownership by 2030?
Mar 13, 5:24 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
26.32%chance
191491
OptionVotes
1023
838
Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030
Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.61%chance
201082
OptionVotes
1546
799
OptionVotes
1133
901
Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030
Apr 11, 3:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.44%chance
12280
OptionVotes
1019
977
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71%chance
11196
OptionVotes
1008
988
@ManifoldMarkets has 20k twitter followers before the end of the year?
Oct 28, 11:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.63%chance
5142
OptionVotes
1013
995
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