Ultra News

Another Google "Ultra" model in 2025?

Apr 14, 1:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.63%chance

6120450

OptionVotes

YES

1374

728

Will Ultra-Orthodox Jews be mandatorily conscripted by the IDF by the end of 2028?

Feb 29, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

232852

OptionVotes

YES

1145

872

Will the next version of Google's LLMs NOT have Flash / Pro / Ultra or other words after the number?

May 20, 8:01 PMMay 20, 7:59 PM

12.55%chance

42170

OptionVotes

YES

2640

379

Of the world's current highest ultra-wealthy, who will be the last standing?

Feb 24, 7:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

131257

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Jeff Bezos

Bernard Arnault

Larry Ellison

Warren Buffett

Will the "Destruction of a Nuclear Bomb Using Ultra-High Energy Neutrino Beam" occur before 2034?

Feb 6, 12:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.84%chance

191016

OptionVotes

YES

1279

957

Did Google intentionally announce Gemini Ultra in a state barely outperforming GPT-4 to slow the capabilities race?

Dec 8, 2:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.34%chance

10446

OptionVotes

YES

478

135

Conditional on release of an iPhone Ultra variant, what features will it have?

Nov 26, 6:21 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

5411

OptionProbability

>= 6.85" display

>= 8x optical zoom

a Thunderbolt 4 or USB4 port

>= 3 high-performance cores

>= 130% mAh battery of next-tier iPhone

greater optical zoom than next-tier iPhone

more high-performance cores than next-tier iPhone

Special LLM capabilities (e.g. extra cache for LLM weights near a Neural Engine)

2 TB storage option

>= 1.5x RAM of next-tier iPhone

>= 12 GB RAM

>= 1.5x transistors of next-tier iPhone

>= 2 USB-C ports

officially supports a desktop-like experience when used with external displays (~same web app experience as MacOS Safari)

a Thunderbolt 3 port

a Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG) chip

special LLM capabilities beyond next-tier iPhone. Just 2x inference volume wouldn't count.

split-screen multi-tasking

more external buttons than next-tier iPhone

Touch ID

officially supports dual-booting MacOS

Will I complete the Ultra Trail de Mont Blanc before 2027?

Dec 17, 7:15 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

37.68%chance

4250

OptionVotes

YES

155

Will GiveWell fund/recommend Ultra Poor Graduation initiatives before January 2028?

Jan 15, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.14%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

160

110

Goku Achieves Transformation Beyond Ultra Instinct before 2027?

Jul 5, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.31%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will Xiaomi 16 Ultra have a “single slab of glass” display with no bezels at all?

May 18, 5:51 PMFeb 28, 5:51 PM

47.87%chance

436

OptionVotes

YES

104

Will Ultra Wide Band (UWB) In human beings(ieee.802.14.04)be compatible with interface technology and more? Before 2027?

May 31, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

120

Ultra News

Prediction markets for Ultra

Prediction markets for Ultra

Prediction markets for Ultra

Another Google "Ultra" model in 2025?

Will Ultra-Orthodox Jews be mandatorily conscripted by the IDF by the end of 2028?

Will the next version of Google's LLMs NOT have Flash / Pro / Ultra or other words after the number?

Of the world's current highest ultra-wealthy, who will be the last standing?

Will the "Destruction of a Nuclear Bomb Using Ultra-High Energy Neutrino Beam" occur before 2034?

Did Google intentionally announce Gemini Ultra in a state barely outperforming GPT-4 to slow the capabilities race?

Conditional on release of an iPhone Ultra variant, what features will it have?

Will I complete the Ultra Trail de Mont Blanc before 2027?

Will GiveWell fund/recommend Ultra Poor Graduation initiatives before January 2028?

Goku Achieves Transformation Beyond Ultra Instinct before 2027?

Will Xiaomi 16 Ultra have a “single slab of glass” display with no bezels at all?

Will Ultra Wide Band (UWB) In human beings(ieee.802.14.04)be compatible with interface technology and more? Before 2027?

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