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WhatsApp News

    Prediction markets for WhatsApp

    Top 10 Most popular social media at the end of 2024

    Mar 23, 7:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    275547

    OptionProbability

    Facebook

    YouTube

    Whatsapp

    Instagram

    TikTok

    WeChat

    Telegram

    Facebook Messenger

    Snapchat

    X/Twitter

    Cludhouse

    Pinterest

    99

    90

    80

    80

    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    3

    2

    Which major product will META kill first?

    Mar 20, 4:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    293066

    OptionProbability

    Threads

    WhatsApp

    Messenger

    Facebook

    Instagram

    84

    9

    3

    2

    2

    OptionProbability

    Wikipedia

    Amazon

    Youtube

    Baidu

    Microsoft.com

    Linkedin

    Microsoft365

    Microsoft Office

    Google

    Whatsapp

    Pornhub

    Reddit

    Samsung Electronics

    Netflix

    Weather Channel

    Instagram

    Pinterest

    Facebook

    Microsoft Bing

    Tiktok

    Microsoft Outlook

    Discord

    Telegram

    DuckDuckGo

    OpenAI

    Twitch

    eBay

    Roblox

    Twitter

    Yahoo

    Zoom

    Xvideos

    Yahoo Japan

    Zen News

    xHamster

    Naver

    Bilibili

    Turbo pages

    Max

    xHamster.desi

    QQ

    Globo

    XNXX

    Docomo

    Yandex Search

    VK

    Fandom

    Sharepoint

    Mail.ru

    Quora

    94

    88

    86

    85

    78

    77

    73

    73

    69

    69

    65

    62

    62

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    60

    55

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    48

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    29

    29

    27

    27

    27

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    15

    9

    What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

    Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    111359

    OptionProbability

    Mass AI-driven job displacement event

    A government declaration/statement (any country)

    Reports about software

    Reports about financial activity

    Report about sociological observations

    Report about economic observations

    AI-related academic achievement

    Attack on military target

    Attack on civilian target

    AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

    A statement from an individual (human)

    AI-related fake news

    AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

    A private company declaration/statement (any company)

    Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

    Military activity / posture change

    An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

    AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

    An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

    A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

    AI-designed cyberweapon

    A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

    AI-related sex scandal

    AI makes prediction about future event

    Open source model release

    Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

    Reports of aerial devices/machines

    Reports of market activity

    AI-related corruption scandal

    AI-related theft

    A new war between nation states

    AI-related resignation

    Reports of activity on blockchain networks

    Reports of activity in online communities

    Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

    Reports of activity in open source software

    A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

    Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

    Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

    People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

    AI-related diplomacy

    Reports about consumer activity

    Reports about people getting scammed

    Reports about identity theft

    Reports of activity in religious communities

    AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

    Reports about industrial activity

    Reports about physical machines

    Reports about criminal activity

    AI-related competition achievement

    A viral meme

    An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

    AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

    AI-related cyberattack

    Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

    A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

    AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

    Attack on Taiwan

    AI-related terrorist attack

    AI-related assassination

    AI-designed pathogen

    AI drug discovery

    AI material discovery

    Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

    AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

    Reports of underwater activity

    Reports of activity in academic communities

    Reports of activity in online video games

    AI-related cult

    AI system demonstrates general robotic control

    AI causes significant stock market event

    Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

    AI-related archaeology

    Major AI safety incident or accident

    AI system makes scientific breakthrough

    AI system solves major unsolved math problem

    An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

    AI-related nuclear weapon use

    49

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    20

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    20

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    15

    15

    15

    11

    11

    11

    11

    10

    Will WhatsApp be blocked in Russia?

    Jul 20, 6:06 PMDec 31, 6:04 PM
    70.69%chance
    10417

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    155

    64

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1141

    876

    OptionProbability

    Reddit

    Facebook

    Twitter/X

    eBay

    Manifold

    PornHub

    Twitch

    Kick

    Netflix

    OnlyFans

    OpenAI

    LinkedIn

    Discord

    Spotify

    Zoom

    Cloudflare

    Amazon

    Coinbase

    Steam

    Instagram

    Bsky

    Mercury

    Cash App

    Duolingo

    Tinder

    Lyft

    Uber

    Shopify

    Slack

    Wikipedia

    Chess.com

    iCloud

    WhatsApp

    Venmo

    Youtube

    74

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

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    31

    20

    OptionProbability

    Platform for migrants to start legal & profitable microbusinesses.

    Database of the Most Impactful Research Questions by Discipline and Cause Area

    Leveraging biophysical techniques to improve the efficiency of successful pregnancies in older women

    Research microeconomic disruptions caused by AGI

    The Odyssean Institute

    Mechanical Library

    Educate the public about high impact causes

    Science prediction markets for replicability

    Free Our Knowledge: Improving scientific publishing through collective action

    Researching low-input traditional agricultural techniques.

    Growing human blood vessels in the lab to unlock replacement tissue/organ therapies

    LLM Multi-Actor Tool to automate Economic Experiments

    Building software to demystify land use regulations

    Gather all formal demographic fertility and population projection methods into a single open source R package for academic, policy, and popular use

    Psychosis in velocardiofacial syndrome (DiGeorge/22q11.2 deletion syndrome)

    Conduct preliminary studies on the impact of MKP-2 on COVID-19 vaccine mediated depression

    MPhil/PhD in Psychology to understand understand how issue polarisation arises from divergences in belief revision via Bayesian networks

    Transform waste streams into biodegradable alternatives

    H-Test: identifying a set of "blindspot" tasks for LLMs that doesn't scale (not inverse, close to no effect) with language training

    Creating a swarm of robotic bees to either pollinate or spray pesticides

    Create accessible synthesis of neuroscience insider knowledge

    Conduct research on voice biomarkers, a promising early detection mechanism for mental illnesses, including Alzheimer’s, Parkinson's, depression, and more.

    Build a digital marketplace and management platform to empower smallholder farmers in Kenya by reducing post-harvest food loss

    Upgrade YIMBY messaging

    Publish a book on Egan education for parents

    Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.

    Apply particle physics clustering to embedding space of LLM

    Fund a detour on my PhD to improve brute force statistical tooling

    Write three articles that integrate meta-analysis and meta-science

    Quantifying the costs of the Jones Act

    Run a public online Turing Test with a variety of models and prompts

    Run a self-help program on WhatsApp to reduce depression in low and middle-income countries

    Build an app to track ones impact on animal cruelty

    Year one of AI Safety Tokyo

    Strengthening digital health information system for epidemic control in Pakistan

    Online videos of Fluidity Forum 2024 talks

    Scaling Legal Impact for Chickens to make factory-farm cruelty a liability

    Distribute HPMOR copies in Bangalore, India

    An online science platform

    Convert a hybrid car to chip wood and generate electricity

    Start an online editorial journal focusing on paradigm development in psychiatry and psychology

    News through prediction markets

    A spaced-repetition first gamified learning platform

    Vegans should have the right to eat in public institutions : help us turn our right into a reality

    Art and Technology XR game providing Ecological and Social-Emotional Learning

    Replicate social science research

    Original Research Study on Effective Communication With Political Staffers

    Empower Ukraine: Invest in Businesses Driving Positive Change

    75

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    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    47

    40

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    Will Meta sell/divest from WhatsApp before 2028?

    Jan 28, 5:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    16%chance
    6140

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    229

    44

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    135

    74

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