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ABC News

    Prediction markets for ABC

    Epstein files prop bets (ADD YOURS)

    Nov 18, 11:15 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
    15816950

    OptionProbability

    At least one credible mainstream news source reports by EO2026 that the files are either partially redacted or partly missing or suspects the files were altered (opinion section OK)

    By EOY26 Massie claims that the files have been altered or otherwise significantly not in compliance with the bill's requirements

    However, the administration manages to blacken great parts of the files.

    Something happens or is enforced by Trump to divert the attraction on other things.

    After blackened papers are made public, there will be a leakage of uncensored files.

    A MSM news source speculates partisan bias in redactions (opinion section OK) by EOY2026

    Stacey Plaskett no longer a US House Delegate before 1 Feb 2027?

    Soon after release, the Trump DOJ launches a raft of investigations against political opponents named in the Epstein files.

    The 10 possible "co-conspirators" of Epstein are revealed

    At least five people with Wikipedia pages resign due to files

    George Stephanopoulos Leaves ABC before 4th of July 2026

    Files suggest Epstein offered to cooperation/testimony against associates within 1 year of his death.

    Somebody gets prison time

    "Bubba" photo released or leaked by EOY26

    Any congressperson gets impeached/removed in 2026 in part due to their involvement with Epstein

    Someone in the November 2025 Supreme Court is mentioned in the files

    An ongoing DOJ investigation triggered by Trump’s allegations involving Bill Clinton or others will result in the files being sealed and not publicly released despite the Epstein Transparency Act

    Trump gets impeached in 2026 in part due to his involvement with Epstein

    Any F500 company’s market cap loses 10% within a week of an executive’s involvements with Epstein becoming known

    At least 10% of current (Nov. 19, '25) House Representatives leave office (by any means) before the next congress is sworn in

    Trump admin vetoes the Nov 18 release

    100

    100

    100

    94

    90

    86

    55

    54

    54

    51

    37

    37

    30

    29

    24

    24

    24

    12

    10

    2

    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2170

    461

    Bachelor Season 30 on ABC by Q1 2026?

    May 24, 8:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM
    8.94%chance
    88980

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3192

    313

    Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026?

    Jan 25, 9:53 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
    78.71%chance
    41125

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1992

    564

    OptionProbability

    At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example

    A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory

    At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable

    Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.

    No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.

    Shinichi Mochizuki is right or almost right about abc conjecture

    P vs. NP will be trivial (i.e., provable using simple methods taught in undergrad classes, e.g., with a counter-example)

    70

    37

    35

    25

    25

    16

    12

    Kirti-Mochizuki proof of the ABC conjecture is correct.

    Sep 10, 11:00 PMSep 17, 10:59 PM
    6.19%chance
    10540

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    389

    26

    One Nation gets at least 5 seats in the South Australian election?

    Mar 23, 3:15 AMMar 29, 12:59 PM
    38.1%chance
    3475

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1275

    784

    OptionProbability

    The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

    The View

    NBC

    ABC

    CBS

    The Simpsons

    FOX

    South Park

    35

    34

    23

    20

    20

    10

    5

    4

    Is the abc conjecture correct?

    Feb 7, 5:41 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM
    79.61%chance
    9318

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    204

    146

    Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

    May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM
    52.98%chance
    5183

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1061

    942

    ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPRSTUWXYZ

    Nov 10, 11:06 AM
    140

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