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Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Mar 11, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10%chance
10510235
OptionVotes
300
33
Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030
Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
11.33%chance
182193
OptionVotes
2200
722
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026?
Aug 2, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.07%chance
81347
OptionVotes
1562
640
Will "On The Independence Axiom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 10, 2:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
43.71%chance
81287
OptionVotes
1244
261
Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?
Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
1.05%chance
6804
OptionVotes
764
5
OptionVotes
1328
823
OptionVotes
209
188
OptionVotes
1061
942
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Jul 20, 6:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.48%chance
5169
OptionVotes
133
95
OptionVotes
223
45
Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?
Oct 27, 8:14 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
48.52%chance
680
OptionVotes
111
108
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