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Prediction markets for Axios
OptionVotes
2000
500
Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030
Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
11.33%chance
182193
OptionVotes
2200
722
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
Will "On The Independence Axiom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 10, 2:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
55.31%chance
6942
OptionVotes
1328
175
Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?
Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
1.05%chance
6804
OptionVotes
764
5
Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.
Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 28, 6:29 PM
59.73%chance
20779
OptionVotes
255
168
Will the US try to capture or blockade kharg island before end of March?
Mar 13, 9:45 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM
37.27%chance
15776
OptionVotes
130
77
OptionVotes
1328
823
OptionVotes
209
188
OptionVotes
1061
942
Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?
Oct 27, 8:14 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
48.52%chance
680
OptionVotes
111
108
OptionVotes
142
70
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