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Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz [resolves NO]

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

Someone solves agent foundations

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

AIs never develop coherent goals

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

Hacks like RLHF-ing self-disempowerment into frontier models work long enough to develop better alignment methods, which in turn work long enough to ... etc; we keep ahead of 'alignment escape velocity'

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

We successfully chained God

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable

The free market disincentivizes independent superintelligence, and this time the market was more powerful

AGI's first words are "Take me to your Eliezer"

Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈

Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina

Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉

Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉

[⚔️Frontrunner] Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus 🥉🥉

Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus

Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus

Dog - Canis familiaris

Cat - Felis catus

Tiger - Panthera tigris

Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus

Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri

Lion - Panthera leo 🥈

Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum

Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris

Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈

Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈

Wolverine - Gulo gulo

Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer

Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias

Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus

Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius

Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima

Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana

Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus

Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti

Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana

Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini

Triceratops - Triceratops horridus

Kiwi - Apteryx australis

Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉

House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus

Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus

Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria

Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉

Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉

Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana

Coyote - Canis latrans

Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus

Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx

Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla

Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri

Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉

Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus

[⚔️Underdog] Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei

❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]

❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]

❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]

❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]

🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum

❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]

🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)

🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]

❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]

❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]

❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]

❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]

❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]

❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]

❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]

❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]

❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]

❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]

YES

Seattle Seahawks (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2013-2014)

New England Patriots (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2018-2019)

Philadelphia Eagles (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2024-2025)

Detroit Lions (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2008-2009)

Kansas City Chiefs (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2023-2024)

Los Angeles Rams (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2021-2022)

New York Giants (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2011-2012)

Denver Broncos (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2015-2016)

Buffalo Bills (Last Extreme - Worst Team 1986-1987)

Baltimore Ravens (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2012-2013)

Green Bay Packers (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2010-2011)

Washington Commanders (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 1991-1992)

Dallas Cowboys (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 1995-1996)

Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2008-2009)

Chicago Bears (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2022-2023)

Minnesota Vikings (Last Extreme - N/A)

Houston Texans (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2013-2014)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2020-2021)

Los Angeles Chargers (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2003-2004)

San Francisco 49ers (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2004-2005)

Cincinnati Bengals (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2019-2020)

Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2021-2022)

Tennessee Titans (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2024-2025)

Miami Dolphins (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2007-2008)

Indianapolis Colts (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2011-2012)

Atlanta Falcons (Last Extreme - Worst Team 1987-1988)

Carolina Panthers (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2023-2024)

Arizona Cardinals (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2018-2019)

Las Vegas Raiders (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2025-2026)

New York Jets (Last Extreme - Worst Team 1995-1996)

New Orleans Saints (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2009-2010)

Cleveland Browns (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2017-2018)

AFC East: Buffalo Bills

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks

AFC East: New England Patriots

AFC West: Denver Broncos

NFC West: Los Angeles Rams

AFC South: Houston Texans

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs

NFC North: Detroit Lions

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys

NFC South: Carolina Panthers

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

NFC North: Chicago Bears

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings

NFC East: Washington Commanders

NFC East: New York Giants

AFC South: Tennessee Titans

AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders

AFC North: Cleveland Browns

AFC East: Miami Dolphins

AFC East: New York Jets

Wins a preseason game

QB Skylar Thompson starts 1 game or more during 2024 regular season

The team moves or is renamed before 2050

Scores over 23.5 points in Week 1

Drafts at least one QB in the NFL Draft

Two Running Backs with over 1000 all-purpose yards

Tua starts at least 16 games

Positive Rush EPA in the 24/25 regular season

YES

Malik Willis

Quinn Ewers

Other

Zach Wilson

Las Vegas Raiders

New York Jets

Pittsburgh Steelers

Los Angeles Rams

Cleveland Browns

Arizona Cardinals

Miami Dolphins

New Orleans Saints

Dallas Cowboys

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers

YES

New York Jets

Other

Kansas City Chiefs

Houston Texans

Denver Broncos

Dallas Cowboys

Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills

YES