PL News
Top stories
Prediction markets for PL
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
44%chance
20031595840
OptionVotes
4892
3847
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
51.59%chance
472396309
OptionVotes
3236
1913
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.1%chance
194280263
OptionVotes
10838
9495
Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?
Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
82.82%chance
85131473
OptionVotes
2810
881
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
60%chance
7512488
OptionVotes
1225
816
Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?
May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM
55.01%chance
221310
OptionVotes
11058
9043
¿# de curules ganados por el PL en las elecciones de Honduras 2025? # of seats won by the LP in Honduras 2025 elections?
Nov 30, 11:37 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
7695
OptionProbability
46
27
24
5
4
3
2
Will Wrocław [PL] public transit implement AI-based flex routing or DRT by the end of 2035?
Sep 5, 6:50 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
39.16%chance
316
OptionVotes
124
99
Will Manchester City have the most Premier League titles (currently at 8 based on PL only) in 2101?
Sep 7, 7:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
47.56%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95
Is The Pipe Plaza run by a frequent user of the Marioverse Discord Sever
Feb 23, 12:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
00
OptionProbability
33
33
33
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20
OptionProbability
50
50
Latest stories
Latest stories