The European Central Bank warned that heightened US tariffs on Chinese goods may prompt exporters in China to redirect shipments to Europe, intensifying competitive pressure on European producers and threatening euro-area jobs. In a box published in its latest Economic Bulletin, the ECB calculates that sectors already facing strong Chinese competition—such as vehicles and chemicals—have suffered sharp declines in labour demand and could experience further losses if trade diversion accelerates. Imports from China rose by 150% for vehicles and 140% for chemicals between 2019 and 2024, while published job vacancies in those industries fell 55% and 95%, respectively. Overall, industries exposed to Chinese competition employ about 29 million people, or 27% of the euro-area workforce, the ECB said. Applying historical trade data, the central bank estimates that every €1,000 increase in Chinese imports per worker within a sector reduces that sector’s employment rate by 0.1 percentage point, translating into roughly 240,000 jobs displaced or reallocated across the bloc between 2015 and 2022. The ECB cautioned that the United States’ 145% tariff on Chinese goods, in place since April, could magnify these trends by driving more Chinese exports toward Europe. While some European firms may gain a price advantage in the US market, the central bank doubts that will offset mounting competitive pressures at home and urges policymakers to prepare for labour-market adjustments.