Mexican Peso Hits 19.07 and 18.56 Amid Israel-Iran Ceasefire, Fed Minutes; BMV Falls 0.87% to 56,687, Oil at $64.59

The Mexican peso experienced notable volatility in June and July 2025 amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shifts in U.S. monetary policy. The peso depreciated for three consecutive days in mid-June, reaching 19.0731 pesos per U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the conflict between Iran and Israel and the potential involvement of the United States. The Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) also declined by 1.17% during this period. Following a surprise U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent retaliations, the peso showed slight gains, trading at 19.14 pesos per dollar. The currency further strengthened to around 18 pesos per dollar after Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. In early July, the peso appreciated to its best level since 2024, reaching approximately 18.56-18.58 pesos per dollar amid ongoing trade negotiations and anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve's minutes. However, after the release of the Fed minutes, the peso depreciated by 0.18%, closing at 18.62 pesos per dollar, while the BMV's main index fell 0.87% to 56,687.54 points. Analysts warned that continued interest rate cuts by Banco de México or further peso depreciation could lead to higher inflation forecasts. Concurrently, commodity prices showed mixed trends: Mexican oil prices rose to $64.59 per barrel, while WTI and Brent crude prices declined. Bitcoin gained 2.04%, reaching $110,872.40 per unit, and gold prices increased slightly to $3,321.27 per ounce. The euro traded at 21.84 pesos on July 9.