Israel News

Other

Jan - Jun 2026

Jul - Dec 2026

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

YES

1500-2500

2500-3500

1000-1500

5000+

3500-5000

0-500

Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours

Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days

Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days

Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck

The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days

>= 10 American soldiers are killed

A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days

Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days

Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days

Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel

Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days

Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel

>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed

Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon

Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel

Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war

A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects

Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days

Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader

Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz

Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs

Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel

100+ civilian deaths in Israel

A nuclear weapon is used offensively

QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days

Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours

NO

NO

YES

YES

YES

NO

NO

YES