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Top stories

Turkey Halts Trade With Israel and Shuts Airspace to Israeli Planes

Turkey Halts Trade With Israel and Shuts Airspace to Israeli Planes

Authors

19

5 months ago

Israel Labels Gaza City Combat Zone, Recovers Bodies of Two Hostages

Israel Labels Gaza City Combat Zone, Recovers Bodies of Two Hostages

Authors

39

5 months ago

US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

US Foreign Policy

US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

Authors

22

5 months ago

Ben-Gvir Presses Israel Police to Clamp Down on Protests Ahead of Rally

Authors

3

5 months ago

UN Says Iran Has Executed 841 People in 2025, Urges Moratorium

Authors

13

5 months ago

Italy’s Meloni Condemns Gaza Strike That Killed Journalists, Citing Disproportionate Force

Authors

6

5 months ago

UK Bars Israeli Officials From London Defence Expo Over Gaza Offensive

Authors

20

5 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Israel Intensifies Gaza Strikes as Washington Debates Post-War Plan

Authors

13

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Israel

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

95129484

OptionProbability

Jan - Jun 2026

Other

Jul - Dec 2026

Jan - Jun 2025

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

45

37

15

1

1

0

0

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.78%chance

348101616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2426

968

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

31274146

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

5000+

1000-1500

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

85

10

2

1

1

0

0

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 1, 5:59 AM

39%chance

6226670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

658

Will Israel or the United States launch airstrikes against Iran before the next Israeli election?

Jan 5, 9:31 PMOct 28, 6:59 AM

69.8%chance

7515359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

658

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.75%chance

11415027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6505

428

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

Jan 29, 10:42 AMDec 29, 12:59 AM

16.7%chance

5310470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

619

[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.34%chance

2910054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9813

3728

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Jul 7, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.29%chance

397272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1314

762

Will as many or more countries recognize Palestine than Israel by 2027?

May 23, 8:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41%chance

303251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.56%chance

171272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6031

4424

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

Nov 2, 9:15 AMMay 1, 9:14 AM

33.47%chance

2420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2420

1704

Latest stories

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Aug 29, 2025
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