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Top stories

Germany Urges Citizens to Leave Iran After Snapback Sanctions Move

Germany Urges Citizens to Leave Iran After Snapback Sanctions Move

Authors

5

7 months ago

Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China

Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China

Authors

7

7 months ago

UN Says Iran Has Executed 841 People in 2025, Urges Moratorium

UN Says Iran Has Executed 841 People in 2025, Urges Moratorium

Authors

13

7 months ago

Russia Warns of Irreparable Consequences from European-Led UN Sanctions Reimposition on Iran's Nuclear Program, Rejects Blame on Tehran

Authors

5

7 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Israel Intensifies Gaza Strikes as Washington Debates Post-War Plan

Authors

13

7 months ago

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

Authors

73

7 months ago

Iran Offers to Restart Nuclear Talks if Counterparts Show Goodwill

Authors

5

7 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Germany, France and Britain Urge Iran to Revive Nuclear Talks

Authors

3

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Iran

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

17412342770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11609

8945

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

57.19%chance

193358760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

866

How many weeks will the US–Iran war last?

Mar 7, 9:10 AMApr 8, 9:59 PM

327154538

OptionProbability

Above 1 week

Above 2 weeks (Mar 14)

Above 3 weeks (Mar 21)

Above 4 weeks (Mar 28)

Above 6 weeks (Apr 11)

Above 9 weeks (May 2)

Above 13 weeks (May 30)

Above 20 weeks (Jul 18)

Above 35 weeks (Oct 31)

Above 55 weeks (Mar 20, 2027)

Above 80 weeks (Sep 11, 2027)

Above 110 weeks (Apr 8, 2028)

100

100

100

98

93

77

64

45

36

29

17

15

Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran in 2026?

Mar 4, 3:17 AMJan 1, 3:16 AM

72.65%chance

695124622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1571

667

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2158150

OptionProbability

No

Yes

97

3

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

8334605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

Jan 5, 5:28 AMDec 27, 9:59 PM

16%chance

8415122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

578

54

Will America send troops to Iran?

Jan 13, 4:44 PMDec 31, 4:42 PM

64.62%chance

8312028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1612

656

Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?

Jun 23, 3:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.19%chance

7112012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5576

2992

Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?

Mar 13, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.02%chance

848711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7305

5306

Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?

Jun 24, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.04%chance

426686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3946

254

If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?

Mar 16, 5:30 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

52.21%chance

141650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2226

1618

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